Israel-Iran conflict: 5 things we still don’t know after the ceasefire

A week after a 12-day conflict brought the Middle East and the world to the brink, a fragile truce between the United States, Israel, and Iran, brokered by the US, is holding. This peace was forged the day after the US deployed 13,000kg “bunker-busting” bombs on three of Iran’s primary nuclear sites. However, many critical questions remain unanswered.

The exact damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear capabilities remains unclear. While President Trump declared the targeted sites “obliterated” and his defence secretary stated they were “destroyed,” a preliminary report from the US Defence Intelligence Agency indicated significant damage but not total destruction to the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities.

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), echoed this sentiment, confirming that the three Iranian sites with uranium treatment, conversion, and enrichment capabilities were “destroyed to an important degree.” However, he cautioned that “some is still standing,” and a full assessment hinges on Iran granting inspectors access.

Initial hopes for de-escalation, sparked by President Trump’s suggestion of easing sanctions and envisioning Iran as a “great trading nation,” quickly faded. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s claim that Tehran delivered a “slap to America’s face” prompted a strong rebuttal from Trump, who subsequently backed off immediate sanction relief.

Despite White House assertions of early discussions for resuming negotiations, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denies any agreement to restart talks. Trump’s own commitment to talks has also been inconsistent, with him stating at a NATO summit, “We may sign an agreement,” but adding, “I don’t think it’s that necessary.”

Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks on a US base in Qatar were largely dismissed by the White House as a symbolic measure, easily fended off due to forewarning. However, the US Department of Homeland Security has issued a public bulletin warning of increased Iranian cyber threats, and the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is urging organisations managing critical infrastructure to remain vigilant.

The current peace remains fragile. Immediately after the US strikes, President Trump reportedly informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to expect further US offensive military action. Despite agreeing to the deal, Netanyahu explicitly stated that Israel would strike again “if anyone in Iran tries to revive this project.”

The ceasefire did not include any agreement from Tehran on dismantling its nuclear programme with Khamenei claiming the attacks “did nothing significant” to Iran’s nuclear facilities. While Trump expressed confidence that Iran currently has no interest in restarting its nuclear programme, he expects Iran to open itself to international inspection to verify compliance.

President Trump’s decision to order strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities was a significant gamble. He has now, post-strikes, conveyed to Netanyahu and other world leaders his desire for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal to be completed soon.

Trump optimistically told reporters on Friday that a ceasefire could be achieved “within the next week.” Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected in Washington this week for discussions on a Gaza ceasefire, Iran, and other matters, indicating potential movement on this front.

- with inputs from AP