Hamas could fracture over differences between Mesha'al and other officials

Occupied Jerusalem: Hamas has noticeably been evolving to adapt to the new political line up in the Middle East created by the Arab Spring.

Analysts detect a split in Hamas between those who have controlled the Israeli-blockaded Gaza Strip for the past five years and leader Khalid Mesha'al, leader-in-exile of the movement's political bureau, based until recently in Syria but now seeking a new home to escape the crisis enveloping their hosts in Damascus.

"I believe this reconciliation agreement will tear Hamas apart," said Samir Awad, political science professor at Birzeit University in the West Bank. "This agreement will not succeed, because Khalid Mesha'al and Hamas' political office abroad want to pay a certain price for unity with Fatah and the PLO. But this price is unacceptable for Gaza."

Reputation

Analysts believe Mesha'al, a native of the West Bank, is gambling on persuading a majority of Hamas leaders to back him in an internal vote due in March. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is also gambling with his reputation as a peacemaker by cosying up to Hamas.

Abbas and Mesha'al signed a deal in Qatar on Monday to form a unity government tasked with preparing long-overdue elections later this year. Although such accords have proved worthless in the past, things might be different now.

Abbas has decided he has a better chance of making peace with Hamas than he does of signing a treaty with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In the short term at least, that might serve the interests of both Abbas and Netanyahu. It could equally open the door to Hamas dominance over Palestinian politics, as Islamists rise to power elsewhere in elections following the Arab Spring.

Teaming up with Hamas, shunned by Israel and the West for its violence, would stop the Middle East peace process in its tracks. But Abbas, 76, believes it is not going anywhere in any case, so reuniting the deeply split Palestinian national movement may seem his best bet for an honourable legacy.