20201211 floodwaters
File photo: A man carries sacks of rice over floodwaters as it continues to rise in the Philippines. An Orange warning alert — which foresees rivers overflowing and inundating some low-lying areas — is up in five provinces in Mindanao on Thursday (April 7, 2022). Image Credit: AP

Manila: Flood alerts are up in at least 6 Philippine regions comprising more than 20 provinces, due to a low-pressure area (LPA) at the tail-end of the so-called “La Niña” phenomenon, which threatens to dump heavy rains on several regions in the country’s east and south-east.

The Orange warning alert — which foresees rivers overflowing and inundating some low-lying areas — is up in five provinces in Mindanao. Weathermen noted that daily rainfall last month (March 2022) in Mindanao already exceeded previous levels recorded in 1982.

Possible 'double-whammy'

In addition to the heavy rains triggered by the current LPA, a tropical cyclone has also been spotted east of the country as of 3pm on Thursday (April 7, 2022). Pagasa forecasters said the cyclone has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h, and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

Though it’s still outside the “Philippine area of responsibility” [spotted at 2,440 km east of Mindanao (4.1°N, 147.4°E)] the cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 15 km/h — towards the Philippines.

Low-pressure area
Satellite data showed that as of 3pm on Thursday (April 7, 2022, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 180 km East Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (8.9°N, 127.9°E).

It is embedded along the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) affecting the islands groups of the Visayas and Mindanao.

Forecasters said the two weather systems could affect the following regions: 

  • Region 5 (Bicol)
  • Region 6 (Western Visayas)
  • Region 7 (Central Visayas)
  • Region 8 (Eastern Visayas)
  • Region 10 (Northern Mindanao)
  • Region 13 (Caraga)

Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected in Mindanao, the main southern island, due to the low-pressure area and ITCZ.

Orange warning

At 7:15 pm on Thursday (April 7, 2022), Pagasa weathermen raised the warning level to “orange” — meaning the heavy rains could flood rivers and trigger landslides in mountainous areas.

The orange warning has been raised in the following areas (provinces):

  • Agusan del Sur (Loreto, SanFrancisco, Bayugan, Las Nieves, Veruela, Santa Josefa, Trento, Bunawan, Rosario, Lapas, Talacogon, San Luis)
  • Davao Oriental (Boston, San Luis, Caraga, Manay)
  • Davao de Oro (Monkayo, Laak)
  • Misamis Oriental (Balingasag, Jasaan, Claveria)
  • Zamboanga del Norte

“Flooding is threatening, especially low-lying areas and along river channels and landslides in mountainous areas.”

Yellow warning

The yellow warning level (flooding is possible in low-lying areas and landslides in mountainous areas) is up in the following:

  • Surigao del Sur (Lingig, Bislig, Hinatuan)
  • Bukidnon (Malaybalay, Impasugong, Malitbog, Manolo Fortich, Sumilao
  • Agusandel Norte (Cabadbaran)
  • Davaodel Norte (San Isidro, Kapalong)
  • Zamboanga del Sur
  • Lanao del Norte

Pagasa also advised the public and the disaster risk reduction and management teams to take appropriate action, and closely monitor the weather condition.

In March, the Mindanao Pagasa Regional Services Division has issued 66 heavy rainfall warnings, as weathermen stated that La Niña is starting to “weaken”.

La Niña: Magnifier of storms
La Niña is characterised by unusually cooler-than-average sea surface temperature, associated with above-normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and early months of the following year.

Record rainfall

The Philippine is witnessing record rainfall. In March, the province of Surigao del Sur recorded 702.5 mm rainfall, the highest total monthly rainfall amount in Mindanao. Surigao also observed the highest total monthly rainfall of 626.4 mm — nearly twice its climatological normal value of 354.8mm for March, Pagasa reported.

On March 6, 2022, with a new Mindanao rainfall record of 87.6 mm, the area of Laguindingan (near the Cagayan de Oro airport) surpassed the previous maximum 84.2 mm daily rainfall recorded on March 19, 1982.