Unusual candidate who has departed from traditional Republican focus

Washington: On November 8, Americans will vote to decide whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be president. In recent days, polls have begun to tighten, reminding Americans that this particularly tense election season is not over.

Trump is an unusual candidate. On policy issues, he has departed from the traditional Republican party focus on free trade, instead leading a wave of antitrade, anti-immigration and anti-establishment sentiment. Yet, he has won over Republicans who were reluctant to support him, by promising to defend causes such gun rights and appointing a conservative justice to the Supreme Court. His campaign’s motto — “Make American Great Again” — has appealed to nostalgic longing among certain parts of the population, particularly some older Americans and white men.

While appealing to these groups, Trump has offended many others, including Latinos (he began his campaign with a speech in which he said “they’re rapists” when describing Mexican immigrants), Muslims (in December he called “for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States”) and African-Americans (in appeals to black voters, he reinforced stereotypes, such as saying “You have no jobs.”).

Perhaps most significantly for his electoral prospects, he has repeatedly offended many women — a trend that was considerably worsened by the October 7 emergence of a 2005 Access Hollywood tape in which Trump bragged about grabbing women’s private parts.

In foreign policy, Trump also has deviated from orthodox positions. He has repeatedly expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and encouraged Russia to hack Clinton’s emails.

He has said the United States should have taken Iraq’s oil and promises that he would take oil from Daesh but has not provided details on how this would work.

His positions on alliances such as Nato and nuclear weapons run strongly counter to Republican policies. In August, 50 senior Republican foreign policy experts wrote a public letter opposing Trump, saying that “we are convinced that he would be a dangerous President.”

Nonetheless, polls show that a large majority of Republicans are likely to vote for Trump. As of October 31, most nationwide polls showed Clinton ahead by 1-5 percentage points.

However, the US electoral college system is based on who wins elections in the most states, rather than the national popular vote. Much will depend on the outcome in key battleground states such as Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

On October 31, the widely referenced data analysts at FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 75.3 per cent chance of winning and Trump a 24.6 per cent chance.

Whoever wins, Trump already has had a major impact on US politics. He defeated 16 other candidates to win the Republican primaries, and Republicans have been unusually divided about whether to support him. Most Republican leaders have endorsed him, but not all, and many who did were reluctant. Trump’s candidacy will reshape the Republican party, but it is not yet clear how.

“I think there will be a split — probably not a wholly new party but a real divide among those who identify as Republican,” said Dr. Chris Oates, Associate at Oxford Analytica.

Trump’s critics fear that he is undermining America’s democratic norms. In the presidential debates, he has refused to say that he will accept the results of the election, argued that the electoral system is rigged, and suggested that Hillary Clinton would be in jail if Trump is president.

He has raised concerns about freedom of the press under a Trump presidency, such as by saying that he would make it easier to sue the media.

A number of observers, including the Economist magazine, have said that Trump represents a “post-truth” or “post-fact” environment, in which a politician need only say things that supporters feel should be true, with no reference to evidence.

However, Trump’s supporters like that he is different from most politicians, often viewing his lack of polish as a sign of authenticity. Many believe that, since he has his own wealth, special interests cannot buy his support.

Many Republicans cite his business experience and abilities as a negotiator, arguing that these are better qualifications for a president than years working as a politician; former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani called Trump a “genius” for taking advantage of laws that allowed him to avoid paying personal federal income tax for years. While many minorities see Trump as offensive, his supporters see him as fighting a “politically correct” culture; one supporter told the BBC that “other candidates wouldn’t tell you how it is, but he does.”

— The writer is a senior journalist based in Washington