GOP likely to nominate Trump as the official Republican nominee for US president

Washington: The Republican Convention, from July 18-21, will very likely nominate Donald Trump as the official Republican nominee for US president.

Trump’s campaign has undermined long-held assumptions about how a candidate gains a party’s support. “His outrageous statements and lack of campaign structure is a one-off” event in US politics, Chris Oates, Associate with Oxford Analytica, told Gulf News.

Trump has very effectively used his ability to gain media attention to run a campaign with limited expenditure on advertising. Trump has long understood the value of the media; in his 1987 book ‘The Art of the Deal’, he wrote that the press is “always hungry for a good story, and the more sensational the better.” As a candidate, Trump has accused Mexican immigrants of being “rapists,” called for a ban on Muslims coming into the United States (a proposal he has since partly revised), implied that President Barack Obama is allowing terrorism and more. “People like the fact that he says what he believes — that he’s not politically correct,” Gary Nordlinger, a professor at George Washington University, told Gulf News. “This is a double-edged sword,” Nordlinger added — useful in the Republican primaries but problematic in the national election.

Trump’s appeal is based on an unusual mix for a Republican candidate. Supporters respect his success as a businessman and like that he claims to be self-funded and independent of special interest donors. His key slogan “Make America Great Again” promises a return to a past that supporters believe was better economically and socially. His campaign has emphasised controlling and decreasing immigration, preserving rights for gun owners, renegotiating trade deals in ways that Trump says will protect American jobs, and putting American interests first in foreign policy.

Trump appeals to a part of the Republican base that is angry at the traditional Republican leadership. “For part of the Republican party, it’s a revolt against what Republicans have been doing in Washington. There’s almost a nihilistic rage against party leaders they feel have let them down,” said Oates. While angry at Republican leaders, this group will not vote for Democrats, due to their liberal social policies and other issues. “While other Republican candidates talked about their disagreements with Obama, Trump really channelled rage” against the status quo, including anger among socially conservative voters who feel “like they’re losing their grip on the nation,” said Dr John Hudak, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

While Trump has campaigned as an anti-establishment outsider, his involvement in politics stretches back to the 1980s, and he has publicly floated the possibility of running for president on and off for about 30 years. He was a leading figure in the “birther” movement that questioned whether Barack Obama was born in the United States. Over the years, Trump has joined the Republican party, the Reform party, and the Democratic Party, before returning to the Republicans. Trump is not a quintessential Republican. Some of his positions, such as on trade, violate long-held Republican orthodoxy. His alienation of Latinos undermines party leaders who believe that reaching out to the Latino population is key to long-term Republican electoral victories. His campaign is dividing the Republican party. While most Republican leaders have backed him, often reluctantly, some key figures have publicly rejected him, including former National Security Advisor to two Republican presidents Brent Scowcroft and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.

Going into the convention, polls show Clinton leading Trump by mostly small margins. “If Trump is able to transform his message and relate better to women, Latinos and college-educated voters, he’ll make this race competitive,” said Hudak. “If he continues to lose ground with these groups, compared to how [Republican candidate Mitt] Romney did four years ago, he’ll lose — no question.”

— Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant