Why Metro Manila is always flooded, (clue) solution known since the 1970s

Why is Metro Manila, composed of 16 cities and one municipality, always flooded?

An urban planner has offered some hard truths – and real solutions.

For veteran architect-urban planner Felino “Jun” Palafox, the question isn’t why Metro Manila floods. It’s why we still pretend we don’t know the answer.

“We saw this coming 50 years ago,” he says.

Palafox, who holds a UP Master's Degree in environmental planning and a Harvard alum in advanced management, is a legend in Philippine urban planning (and one of Forbes Asia’s “48 Heroes of Philanthropy”).

He has been waving the flood flag in the capital since the 1970s.

Back then, as a young planner working on the World Bank-funded "Metroplan Manila", he and his team warned of exactly the chaos we now see on rainy days: flooded streets, traffic nightmares, garbage-clogged waterways.

“At 25, we predicted this. I’m now 75,” he quips. “We said, if we do nothing, there’ll be catastrophic flooding, congestion, and all the urban mess.”

One of Palafox’s most memorable metaphors? “Laguna Lake is like a toilet without a flush.”

The Manggahan Floodway was built to direct excess floodwater toward the lake — but the planned spillway that would drain it to Manila Bay?

Never built.

“The floodway was funded and finished. The spillway was not. That’s why the lake overflows.”

He called Laguna Lake (often referred to as "Laguna de Bay") as a "toilet without a flush" to illustrate how water — especially floodwaters — gets dumped into the lake without any effective way to drain it out.

For context, the Manggahan Floodway, built in the 1980s, was designed to divert excess water from the Marikina River to Laguna Lake during heavy rains to prevent Metro Manila from flooding.

But the companion project — a "spillway" that would drain excess water from the lake out to Manila Bay — was never built.

So floodwater enters the lake… but stays there, often backing up and contributing to more flooding.

During heavy rain, he explains, around 4,600 cubic metres per second of water flows down from the mountains — but the Pasig River can only carry 600 cubic metres per second.

That leaves over 4,000 cubic metres per second with nowhere to go, swamping 90,000 hectares of urban land.

“To put that in perspective: Singapore is only 73,000 hectares,” said Palafox.

So, what’s causing all this?

“Urbanisation, poor planning, climate change, garbage – it’s all of the above,” says Palafox. But the core issue?

“Lack of infrastructure. And the plans have existed since 1974.”

In fact, flood control projects like the Manggahan Floodway were meant to work with other structures — like a spillway or a tunnel system — but these were shelved or never implemented.

Palafox proposes building a “smart tunnel,” similar to Malaysia’s Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel (SMART) in Kuala Lumpur.

He's proposing a multi-purpose tunnel from Laguna Lake to Manila Bay. "The top level is a road, the second level another road, and the bottom serves as a spillway during floods.”

He says this could be part of a 10-year flood mitigation programme.

While time is running out, money is not: every year, the Philippines earmarks about $20 billion (Php1.034 billion) for flood-control measures.

Under the Constitution, Philippine presidents only serve for six years. And the country's weak party system is unable to sustain long-term infrastructure programmes.

“The best time to act was in the 1970s. The second-best time was after Ondoy. Maybe now is the third-best.”

Even President Marcos Jr. mentioned the spillway in his campaign — so, what’s stopping us?

Here’s where it gets ugly. Infrastructure projects in the Philippines are too often weighed down by official pilferage, "corruption".

It's another name for kickbacks by politicians.

Under the Philippines' current system, Senators and Congressmen approve the national budget (called the General Appropriations Act), and then allocate money to each other from the National Treasury.

That includes the so-called "farm-to-market roads", and flood-control projects.

Most elected politicians are non-engineers, who wield the power to identify infrastructure projects, water down the specs so they can pocket the difference, and tell the engineers to make do with what's left.

“I’ve spoken to contractors who were asked to ‘down-spec’ because someone wanted a 40% cut,” reveals Palafox. “That money comes from somewhere — usually by reducing specs. So our flood control ends up substandard.”

Mayor Benjamin Magalong of Baguio has been quoted as saying that corruption in public works can reach up to 70%. If that’s true, it’s no wonder our drainage collapses every typhoon.

If 40% to 70% goes to corruption, said Palafox, Filipinos are literally building disasters.

Palafox wants transparency at every level — even during bidding.

“Why not televise the bidding process? Let the public see who wins and for how much. We once lost a bid even though we were ₱15 million cheaper than the winner.”

Right now, 75% of Manila’s drainage is outdated or clogged, said Palafox.

The infrastructure is designed for typhoons that come once every 25 years — but today, 100-year typhoons hit every few years.

“Even mountain communities are now 70% concrete. No space left. Floodwaters don’t respect political boundaries — that’s why we must plan from ridge to reef.”

Palafox isn’t anti-reclamation — if it’s done right.

“In 1976, Metroplan said no new reclamation until Manila Bay is properly studied. I’ve worked on reclamation abroad — it works when done with science and planning.”

He declined to join many Manila Bay projects but worked on San Miguel’s airport project in Bulakan, saying it’s technically “land recovery,” not reclamation.

“They did their due diligence. Those are titled fishponds.”

The Dolomite Beach in Manila Bay was a Php654-million hit on Filipino taxpayers (Ph389-million initial cost when work on the beach started in 2020, an additional P265-million budget allotted for its second phase in 2021). There are concerns about its cost.

“As a concept, it’s good," said Palafox. "Tondo has no open spaces. People need places to go. But I don’t know if proper coastal engineering was done.”

His tip? Future reclamations should be islands, not attached to the mainland, to avoid creating bigger watershed issues.

“It’s 90% cheaper to prevent a disaster than to recover from one. But here, we wait for floods, declare calamity, then repeat.”

Palafox’s call to action: Review the building code, the subdivision code, and drainage standards.

Start with short-term fixes. Invest in long-term solutions. Demand transparency. And most of all — build what was promised decades ago.

“The people aren’t clueless. They just want someone to finally follow through.”