India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) withdrawal of support to the Mehbooba Mufti government in Jammu and Kashmir points to the path the party intends to follow in the run-up to next year’s general election.
The series of recent by-election defeats, the inability to form a government in Karnataka and continued uncertainty over the likely results of assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh later this year have led to BJP’s strategy of a hard line.
Since the inclusive Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (Together for all, development for all) pitch has not succeeded in winning over the fence-sitters, the party appears to have opted for a hawkish stance. And where else can such a policy have a more visible impact than in the Kashmir Valley?
Ram Madhav, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) man in the BJP, conceded that the party’s base in Jammu and Ladakh — the two non-Muslim regions in the state — was being eroded due to the perception that it is compelled to pursue a soft line against militants because of its alliance with the supposedly pro-separatist People’s Democratic Party (PDP) with its roots mainly in the Valley. BJP supporters hold the view that the party was hamstrung by the PDP’s opposition to Article 371 of the Constitution of India, which grants special status to Kashmir, and to the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act. The PDP’s call to extend the Ramadan ceasefire also rankled the BJP. So, it was only a question of time before the alliance ruptured.
It was an unlikely alliance anyway between an avowedly pro-Hindu party and a party of Kashmiri Muslims that seems to favour azadi (freedom) if it meant greater autonomy for the state and a reduction in the army’s presence.
The BJP must have also been uneasy about the possibility of the PDP striking first. It could have occurred on two occasions. The first was after the horror of the rape of a Muslim child in Kathua when some BJP followers wanted the case to be tried by the Central Bureau of Investigation rather than by the state police. The second came when the Centre decided against extending the Ramadan ceasefire.
Mehbooba’s inexperience may explain her failure to act even when her party was losing support due to the alliance with the BJP. The gainer will undoubtedly be the National Conference, which is in favour of an election. The BJP does not seem to have much interest in the Valley, where it secured a measly 2.2 per cent of the votes in 2014 and won no seats. It didn’t win any seat in Buddhist-dominated Ladakh either. The BJP won 22 of its 25 seats in the 87-member assembly from the Hindu-majority Jammu — a far cry from the pre-election “Mission 44” boast of party president Amit Shah.
The party also appears to have given up on Muslim votes in any state. Senior BJP and RSS officials, who held a meeting in Surajkund (Haryana), listed three factors — farmers’ distress, alienation of Dalits (the so-called untouchables) and the proposed unity of opposition parties — as the obstacles facing the BJP in 2019. So, the party doesn’t seem keen to win over the Muslims.
However, it will be a mistake if the party ignores Muslims and resorts to what its opponents call the polarisation of society on communal lines to consolidate its base among Hindus. While the impact of such a policy will be on less inflammatory matters like extolling historical figures such as Maharana Pratap at the expense of Akbar, or refusing to renew the passport of a Muslim married to a Hindu woman, it will be unfortunate if it leads to a rise in clashes between the security forces and the locals in Kashmir. So the army and the police will have to be more careful when dealing with young radicals. Caution is necessary because it underlines the psychological gulf that has opened up between the security forces and students.
When the PDP was in the government, there was a link, however tenuous, between the law-enforcement machinery and the locals. Now that the BJP’s hand will be seen behind the governor’s rule, the gulf can become wider, making it difficult to reach out to ordinary people, especially if the security forces pursue what has been called a “muscular policy”.
For the BJP, losing the hearts and minds in the Kashmir Valley is a price it is willing to pay to make electoral gains among the “nationalists” in the mainland.
— IANS
Amulya Ganguli is an Indian political analyst.
