The face of our Arab world has changed beyond recognition in less than 12 months. At least four autocratic regimes have been unseated by popular uprisings. But, as I've predicted in my newspaper columns, such sudden widespread change has led to instability, insecurity and disunity among states, weakening the Arab region.

On January 25, Egyptians marked the first anniversary of their revolution, but the mood was hardly celebratory. Discontent runs through all sectors. The youth say their revolution has been stolen by the military and Islamists. The Islamists dominating parliament are pushing the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf) to transfer power to a civilian government. The poor demand jobs and an end to spiralling prices.

Early on, when most commentators were responding emotionally to the revolution, I wrote of the dangers. As long ago as February 5, 2011, in a column titled Egypt's youth revolution has been hijacked I warned that the Muslim Brotherhood was artfully portraying itself as moderate while secular parties led by Mohammad Al Baradei and Ayman Nour had little following.

In A worrying turn for Egypt's revolution (April 6, 2011) I wrote of warming relations between Egypt and Iran and of my worries that should the Muslim Brotherhood dominate politics, "it could become a conduit for Iranian influence in the heart of the Arab world". I note with concern that a new Egyptian movement calling itself the Egyptian Revolutionary Guard that has replaced the eagle on Egypt's flag with the Ayatollah Khomeini has since emerged. During a speech delivered in Bahrain, Dubai's Police Chief Lieutenant General Dahi Khalfan Tamim equated the threat to the Gulf from the Muslim Brotherhood with that from Iran.

Revolution of hungry

I wasn't far off the mark in my other articles on Egypt published last year — A fine line between liberty and chaos (March 3, 2011), Egypt's economic recovery is in the balance (May 23, 2011), An impatient majority holds Egypt hostage (July 24, 2011), Only God's mercy can save Egypt (August 6, 2011) and Egyptians require saving from themselves (October 14, 2011). In those, I asserted the importance of strong governance allowing the economy to grow. I foresaw a revolution of the hungry. That hasn't happened yet but when the country's foreign currency reserves have been halved, the stock market volatile and there is speculation that the Egyptian pound will be devalued, the hungry will make their voices heard.

Given that Egypt isn't fit to re-adopt its role as one of the Arab world's leaders and the Arab League is divided, I have been urging the GCC to grasp the leadership reins. In my column, Moment ripe for firm GCC union, I seconded the call from Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz urging GCC states "to move from a phase of cooperation to a phase of union within a single entity" to stave off growing threats".

Lt Gen Dahi has recently put US policies atop his ‘threat list' ahead of Iran. He accuses America of being insincere, exporting revolution and handing Iraq to Iran. I think Iran is more dangerous but as I wrote in my column GCC grapples with Iranian threat, published March 14, 2011, I agree that the US operates out of self-interest. The GCC should take a leaf out of Washington's book. The GCC should be responsible for the protection of its lands and peoples; it should develop its military prowess to deter its enemies as I've urged in several articles, including my Open letter to the heads of GCC States (August 27, 2011).

I have also advocated a GCC rapid reaction force to intervene in Syria and I'm grateful to the Emir of Qatar Shaikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani for his readiness to deploy Gulf troops. I am also pleased that Saudi Arabia withdrew the Saudi observers, a move emulated by Gulf states. I'm glad, too, that the Arab League is liaising with the UN to lend weight to its demands. It is, however, shameful that some Arab countries are obstructing progress.

Tarek Al Humaid, writing in Asharq Al Awsat under the headline Syria: KSA did it, what about you? took the words out of my mouth when he asked why other Arab states were hesitant to help Syrians and again when he suggested that the GCC should join with Turkey to rescue them. I'm also appreciative of his recognition that Iraq has been given to Tehran by Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki and his cohorts.

Once again, I would ask the heads of GCC states not to rely on outsiders. Depend on your own power and don't be afraid to display your military capabilities to scare our foes. Follow your hearts and you'll do what's right. Hear the message of Surat Al Anfal, Verse 60 and be guided by it:

"And prepare against them whatever you are able of power and of steeds of war by which you may terrify the enemy of Allah and your enemy and others besides them whom you do not know [but] whom Allah knows. And whatever you spend in the cause of Allah will be fully repaid to you, and you will not be wronged."

 

Khalaf Al Habtoor is a businessman and chairman of Al Habtoor Group.