Seen as a major development, a delegation of the Afghan Government met representatives of the Taliban and Haqqani Network on July 8, 2015, at the tourist resort of Murree, close to the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. The meeting was significant for several reasons. It was the first formal and direct communication between the Afghan Government and representatives of the insurgents. Most importantly, it was facilitated by Pakistan, having the highest influence on the insurgents that could play a game-changer role.
Equally important, the United States and China attended the session as observers. Negotiating a peace deal with the insurgents has been a long-standing desire of Kabul for more than a decade. Yet, Former Afghan president Hamid Karzai’s frequent attempts failed to deliver due to lack of strategy and a clear roadmap for peace. It may be premature to expect too much from the current wave of negotiations. Yet, the move can be termed as a breakthrough since the talks have been formally endorsed by the Taliban and were attended by all the major stakeholders to a peace settlement in Afghanistan. Both sides have agreed to continue negotiations and the next round of talks is expected to be held very soon. During a ceremony after the Eid prayers, to which this author had been invited, Afghan President Ashraf Gani formally thanked the Taliban reclusive leader Mulla Mohammad Omar for his endorsement of the peace process.
Gani’s overtures to Pakistan for normalising relations ever since taking office last September eventually led to the meeting with the Taliban. In sharp contrast to his predecessor, Gani has been more pragmatic in his approach towards Pakistan. He has already declared that his country must first make peace with Pakistan before any reconciliation with the Taliban might be possible. Despite feelings of resentment among Afghans towards Pakistan as to why the news of Mullah Omar’s death, if true, was kept secret, there is a general consensus on the smooth progress of the talks.
From day one, Gani’s priority number one is “peace” and rightly so. He, together with his Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah, cannot deliver on their promises in an environment of raging conflict. Notwithstanding differences between the president and the chief executive on issues of governance, on the peace process there is no reason both leaders cannot be on the same page. Peace not only serves the political interests of both Gani and Abdullah, It has been the most pressing demand of the entire Afghan nation. On Pakistani side, there is better and improved sense of understanding regarding Afghan leadership and its commitment to a political settlement. One of the problems with Karzai was lack of clarity on how to move forward on the political process. Towards the end of his tenure, Karzai was very vocal in blaming both Pakistan and the US as the main obstacle in the way of the peace process. While the Taliban has been a regional phenomenon, Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) threatens international security and possesses highly organised infrastructure being in control of territories that spread across Syria and Iraq. Daesh has already made inroads in eastern Afghanistan. The group is more ferocious, extremist and has an international agenda. There are reports of rivalry and armed conflict between the Taliban and Daesh forces, especially in eastern Afghanistan. The Taliban’s willingness to come to the negotiating table is not without compelling reasons and it is none other than the emergence of Daesh in parts of Afghanistan. Taliban understand their stubborn approach to peace process is self-defeating and Islamabad understands this very well. The scenario presents an environment for Gani to negotiate the terms of the settlement from position of strength rather than being forced.
At the same time, Karzai, although out of power, still matters. In general, he enjoys high respect among Afghans for his leadership skills. He was fortunate to be the president at times of economic prosperity with huge amounts of foreign aid flowing into the country. Karzai helped promote the political careers of hundreds of individuals, some of whom are now part of the national unity government. Several others have sidelined themselves for potential future political role. Karzai has been critical of Gani’s rapprochement efforts with Pakistan. With the political capital the former leader has gained, his disagreement could be damaging. Yet, he suggests no alternative approach on how to deal with peace-making.
Peace negotiation with the Taliban is a daunting task. Some critics of the negotiations argue that the government may end up with a peace settlement with one group while others will still remain active challenging the authority of the Government. However, the crux of the matter is the crucial role of Pakistan, which Gani is well aware of. In spite of Islamabad’s limitations, any insurgent group that claims to be associated with the Taliban movement cannot sustain itself should Pakistan decide to root it out. The whole logic of Gani’s efforts is based on this point.
Engaging China on the political process can be considered a major foreign policy success of Gani. The significance of Chinese involvement is self-evident as both Pakistan and China have been traditional allies. It will be hard for Pakistan not to sincerely make efforts for peace by using its clout with the Taliban in order to eventually persuade them to reconcile with the Afghan Government.
Most importantly, Gani enjoys nationwide support for his efforts for peace as Afghans understand their lives cannot change for the better without lasting peace and security in their country. No one can predict how long the political settlement, if any, will take given the complexity of the overall political equation. But the talks may herald the beginning of marginalised Taliban insurgency awaiting a more dangerous threat from Daesh, which looms large on the horizon. It is here that countries in the region — and most importantly Afghanistan, Pakistan and China — can collaborate to stop Daesh from further advances into Afghanistan. Having an endorsement from the US, Afghanistan’s major strategic partner, and an apparent crucial support from Pakistan have raised hopes that a political settlement may be possible.
Ajmal Shams is president of the Afghanistan Social Democratic Party, better known as Afghan Millat National Progressive Party, and is based in Kabul, Afghanistan. He served as policy adviser to Ashraf Gani, the Afghan President, when he chaired the security transition commission. He mainly writes on political and developmental issues.
