Why Obama was the other winner

On January 3, 2008, at the start of the Democratic Party contest to choose a candidate for the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama won a clear victory in the Iowa caucuses that propelled him towards the White House.

Four years on from that historic result and it appeared on Tuesday that the president had triumphed once more from a vote in the Midwestern state — this time without even having to enter the contest.

For while Mitt Romney was undoubtedly relieved at his narrow victory and Rick Santorum celebrated a remarkable turnaround that almost saw him come from nowhere to win, it was Obama who appeared to have gained the most from a night when Republican voters failed to settle on a clear front-runner to challenge him for the presidency.

Given the three-way division in Republican ranks between the secular centre-right, evangelicals and libertarians, who supported Romney, Santorum and Ron Paul respectively in near equal numbers, Obama's strategists will take comfort that Iowa again shows the path to victory.

Weakening eventual winner

The lack of a strong Republican candidate is likely to drag out the contest and weaken the eventual winner. Romney will probably grind his way towards the nomination but he will not be a popular choice, just as Senator John McCain was a begrudging selection in 2008. That will mean a lack of enthusiasm among the party faithful that could depress the Republican vote in November. The president's advisers also quickly noted that Romney won only 13 per cent of voters earning less than $50,000 (Dh183,500) a year — the white middle and lower middle class who will be crucial in swing states such as Ohio and who are prone to be suspicious of a son of privilege with background in private equity. Romney also lost to Dr Paul, a maverick Texas congressman, by four to one among independent voters.

Other leading Democrats could scarcely contain their glee at Santorum's strong showing, suggesting that a relatively obscure senator best known among liberals for equating homosexuality with bestiality was a laughable prospect as an opponent for Obama.

Despite the gloating of Democrats, Romney will be happy with a victory in what is, with the exception of South Carolina, the most conservative state in the early nomination battles. But nagging doubts remain for the former Massachusetts governor.

His campaign will be anxious about his ability to expand his share of the vote above that 25 per cent mark anywhere apart from New Hampshire, which neighbours his home state and where he owns a holiday home, and Michigan, where his father was once governor.

Given the parlous state of the economy, the gloom about US prospects and Obama's leadership failings, the battle for the White House will be close. Romney is comfortably the Republicans' best hope because of his potential appeal to the middle ground, but results in Iowa did nothing to upset the betting that the president will finish a narrow winner.

— The Telegraph Group Limited, London 2012