Ways out of the Iraq quagmire

Lately, the Middle East witnessed a number of important political, diplomatic and military developments which are worthy of research and analysis as they may well be the beginning of new policy issues in the region.

These ongoing events may be divided into two groups - one that is led by the US, while the second is the result of other players in the international arena.

The recent developments are as follows:

- Former British prime minister Tony Blair was appointed as the Middle East envoy working on behalf of the Quartet comprising the US, Russia, the UN and the EU. The announcement came just hours after he stood down as the prime minister and shortly before it was announced that he was to quit as a member of parliament.

- US President George W. Bush sent his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defence Secretary Robert Gates on a joint mission to the Middle East to shore up support for the Iraqi government. The unusual joint trip by the State Department and Pentagon chiefs was aimed at bolstering the international standing of Iraq's besieged government, while also attempting to generate political pressure on Iran and Syria to stop from extending their support to Iraqi insurgents.

The US administration also needed some urgent feedback from both the US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and General David Petraeus, Commander of the Multi-National Forces in Iraq, to be prepared in September, about the future US strategy in Iraq. This report will help minimise the anger and contempt within the American society and Congress, because of the failure of the Bush administration's policies in Iraq.

- The United States is sending a third aircraft carrier to the Arabian Gulf, to back up the US military deployment there.

- The United Nations has offered to increase its presence in Baghdad for the first time in more than three years, after repeated appeals from the Bush administration for the world body to play a more active role in resolving Iraq's sectarian disputes. The US push for a broader UN role in Iraq underscores Washington's reliance on the United Nations to strengthen international support for the war.

On the other hand, besides the US, the other international group too has intensified its pitch in their foreign policies towards Iraq and the Middle East. This can be seen from the following:

- British Prime Minister Gordon Brown appoints UN official Michael Williams as his Middle East envoy. Williams, a British former journalist and Foreign Office adviser, was the United Nations' special coordinator for the Middle East, a post he has held for less than three months.

This appointment shows Brown's wish to take a somewhat remote route in connection to both Washington and Tel Aviv.

- Additional deterioration of the Iraqi situation. The government in Baghdad faces additional problems as the Iraqi Coalition Front pulls out of the government.

- Iran and the United States talks on security problems facing Iraq because of the differences in the agenda of the two groups.

Amidst all these current political affairs, Bush has two options to tread: One is to pull out of Iraq, which will no doubt lead to an Iraqi civil war after the seeds of sectarian strife were planted in Iraq by the US. Under such circumstances the Kurds will be obliged to declare independence. This might lead to neighbouring countries to invade the region, as most of the surrounding countries are against an independent Kurdish state.

Ugly role

The other option is striding forward and enlarging the scale of war to include neighbouring countries who have played a covert and ugly role in the deteriorating situation in Iraq. This attitude will face a great opposition from Europe, Russia and China who believe that there is still space and hope for diplomacy in the region.

Several indicators show that the US administration will prefer the second option, as pulling out of Iraq is not on the agenda any time soon.

The second option will also help the US in achieving its goals of balancing the Middle East powers, especially as Iraq has left the scene as an important military power.

Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.