War, oil, and samosas: The chain linking geopolitics to daily life

How could Donald Trump and a man selling samosas on a street corner in India possibly be connected? In today’s world of geopolitics, the link is surprisingly direct.

The ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran has sent shockwaves far beyond the Middle East.

With missiles and drones targeting locations across the region, global energy markets have been rattled. Oil prices have surged sharply, driven in part by fears around the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most critical shipping routes for global energy trade. Tankers moving crude and refined products through the narrow waterway have slowed amid rising tensions, tightening supplies and pushing prices higher. The impact has spread beyond oil, with sharp swings in equities, bonds and commodities across global financial markets over the past two weeks.

But the story does not end with energy traders or policymakers.

After a drone strike on energy infrastructure, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on some liquefied natural gas shipments and suspended production at key facilities. The state-owned company informed buyers that it could not guarantee contractual deliveries while assessing the damage and restarting operations.

Force majeure clauses allow suppliers to suspend contractual obligations when events beyond their control prevent normal operations.

Any prolonged interruption to Qatari exports would be felt across both Asia and Europe. Countries including Japan, South Korea and China depend heavily on LNG imports, and Qatar is one of the world’s largest suppliers, exporting more than 75 million tonnes each year from its facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City.

Traders say spot LNG prices and tanker freight rates have already begun to climb amid uncertainty over the scale and duration of the disruption.

The squeeze on supply has been compounded by disruptions to oil and gas shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions involving Iran have slowed tanker traffic across the Gulf, pushing up transportation costs and tightening energy supplies for countries that rely heavily on imports.

India is one of those countries. Roughly 60% of its liquefied petroleum gas requirements are imported, meaning global disruptions can quickly filter down into domestic markets.

The effects are now becoming visible in everyday life. Households and kitchens across several Indian cities have begun adjusting how they cook to stretch their LPG cylinders. Meals that require long cooking times or heavy frying are being avoided, with simpler dishes such as rice and lentils replacing more elaborate meals.

These adjustments help kitchens keep operating with limited fuel until supplies stabilise. But the shift is hitting small vendors the hardest. Many rely on daily food sales to cover rent, buy groceries, pay school fees, or simply keep their businesses running.

The Indian government has introduced emergency measures to manage limited gas supplies. Officials say households and essential services will receive priority access while authorities work to stabilise the market.

Which brings us back to the original question.

A conflict that began thousands of kilometres away has now altered how food is prepared in a small street stall in India. Decisions taken by powerful leaders have changed the daily routine of someone who had no direct connection to the conflict.

That is the uncomfortable reality of an interconnected world. Decisions taken in Washington, Tel Aviv or Tehran move through energy markets, shipping routes and commodity prices before finally arriving in the frying pan of a samosa seller half a continent away.