US has stepped up pressure on China

Sino-US relations seem to have been deteriorating rapidly in recent weeks. Irritated by China's opposition to a new round of sanctions against Iran, the Obama administration stepped up the pressure on Beijing, opening many fronts with one shot. Last Friday, the Pentagon announced a $6.4 billion (Dh23.5 billion) arms deal with Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province. Two days later, a White House spokesman stated that President Barack Obama would soon be meeting with the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, whom China regards as an advocate of Tibetan independence. During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went as far as to warn China that it is jeopardising its Gulf oil supplies if it continues to support Iran's "defiant attitude".

Most political analysts believe that China's opposition to US policy on Iran has prompted Obama to poke at the sovereignty issues that have long been China's "Achilles' heel", as the New York Times put it. Yet, the arm-twisting over Iran — important as it might be — is just the tip of the iceberg. The US believes that China's appetite for oil is affecting its foreign policy choices.

Indeed, China's rapidly increasing demand for oil is leading to the world's political map being redrawn. Last year, China used seven million barrels of oil a day, overtaking Japan as the world's second-largest oil consumer after the US. With an annual economic growth rate standing at 10.7 per cent, it is almost certain that China's expanding need for imported energy to sustain its economic growth will collide with the needs of the US, the EU and Japan.

More important, over the past decade, China has transformed from being a regional power, mainly concerned with defending its borders in a largely inhospitable environment, into a global power with interests extending throughout the world. The quest for oil has taken Beijing as far afield as North Africa and Latin America. Oil demands are also affecting China's attitudes towards US policies from Eurasia to the Middle East to North and West Africa. Concerns over oil security are increasingly influencing China's diplomatic and strategic calculations.

Distraction

From the very beginning, the George W. Bush administration was vigilant to the threats presented by the rising Chinese power. Before 9/11, China was regarded by the Bush team as a major challenge to America's hegemony in the post-Cold War era. For a short while, the September 11, 2001, attacks caused the US to focus less on China. But the US invasion of Iraq disturbed China's political agenda and awakened it to the bitter conclusion that the US could end up in a position to control vast oil reserves. This would enable it to blackmail Beijing over issues of disagreement, such as political reform, Taiwan and North Korea.

Since the mid 1990s, China realised that US hegemony in the Middle East could be a threat to its national interests and quest for oil supplies. Hence, it opposed US policies towards Baghdad and Tehran. Furthermore, to counteract Washington's strategy, which aimed at controlling the Gulf, China used its military sales to forge closer links with regional powers, mainly Iran. Currently, China is considered a prime alternative supplier of weaponry by most countries in the region. Arms sales are also used by China to decrease the deficit in its balance of payments resulting from large oil purchases.

China has attempted to develop trade relations with Gulf oil producers, leading to a clash of interests with the US. In 1997, Beijing signed a deal to develop the Al Ahdab oil field in central Iraq and in the following year it began negotiations for the Al Halfayah field. The two Iraqi deals were hindered, however, by the US invasion, forcing China to look for other resources. Therefore, in September 2003, it approached Iran and signed a $70 billion (Dh257.4 billion) deal to supply it with oil and gas for the next 30 years. This deal turned China into one of Iran's major clients and affected Chinese policy towards the Iranian nuclear programme. Washington believes that an oil-for-security formula might be developing between Iran and China; wherein the former would guarantee uninterrupted oil supplies at reasonable prices in exchange for Chinese nuclear technology and political support. This tacit alliance between Tehran and Beijing, Washington fears, could develop into a mutual defence pact. If relations between the two countries reach this strategic level it would complicate Washington's strategy not only in the Gulf region, but worldwide.

Washington has decided, henceforth, to move quickly to stop China from getting closer to Iran. If this strategy fails, Washington will not hesitate to use military action to stop Iran drifting eastward.

Dr Marwan Al Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations at the Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.