The embrace Iraq would rather avoid

The last visit by Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mousa to Baghdad on March 17 was part of intense regional diplomatic activity in the run-up to the Arab Summit in Doha, which was held with the intention of reaching a sort of consensus on at least some regional issues. Yet, the visit was a long-overdue step towards strengthening Arab ties with Baghdad in order to check the alleged Iranian influence in Iraq.

Though the call to bring Iraq back to the Arab fold was issued after the Anglo-American invasion, the effort gathered pace recently with the anticipated US military withdrawal from the country. Mousa stressed the progress made in Iraq, and talked about reconciliation - one of the goals of the Arab rapprochement with Iraq.

Things have changed in Iraq; at least the statistics of violence. But reconciliation is still far away and, despite public statements and political rhetoric, the new elite in Iraq is entrenched behind factional and sectarian barricades. There are local issues behind this, and the situation is exacerbated by regional factors, especially Iran's influence on Iraqi Shiites. Efforts by Arab, mainly Gulf, states to bridge the gap between factions of the new Iraqi elite have yielded little - if anything - so far.

Are the 'moderate' Arab states really reclaiming Iraq as a strong Arab member of the fold, or are they mainly concerned about regional powers, like Iran and Turkey? I think the latter is true, as Iraq is no longer the Arab country that fits into the old regional structure. So, opening embassies in Baghdad and handing over the rotating presidency of Arab summit to Iraq next year are just symbolic gestures, not enough to truly bring the country back to the Arab fold.

As it appears from heated political activity ahead of the Doha summit, the main Arab issue is Iran, rather than Palestine, Sudan or Iraq. Recent European gestures towards Iranian-backed resistance groups and anticipated change of American policy towards Tehran could be a source of concern for Arab regimes - especially the 'moderate', pro-West ones. Efforts to mend relations with Syria are aimed at taking Damascus away from Tehran's embrace, maybe under implicit warning that its leader could face the fate of the Sudanese leader (as a result of the Hariri tribunal).

If this is to work with Syria, it is totally different when it comes to Iraq. Since the invasion and occupation of the country in 2003, two regional powers were involved there besides the occupying Anglo-American forces. Iran and Turkey were, are and will continue to be keen on playing a role in the affairs of their destabilised neighbour. Any lasting stability in Iraq depends on the position of those two regional powers, more than that of any Arab country. The new Iraqi political elite understand this very well, whatever they say publicly.

No doubt the region is heading towards a phase where the key players will have to change strategies to cope with that approach. The new American administration is embroiled in mounting internal problems that might drag on for long. Washington's main areas of interest are in Asia (China and Japan), Europe (including Russia) and the Middle East. But this, most probably, is not the foremost priority for America currently.

A far-right government in Israel would not be too unhappy with reduced American involvement, as it gives it room to pursue more of its policies creating more 'facts on the ground' to support a harder position in any future negotiations with Palestinians. That would, in turn, change focus in the region on other issues, like Iran and internal Arab rivalries.

Arab leaders are right to make efforts to overcome their internal disputes, and try to agree on a basic regional issue. Reconciling with Syria and unifying the Palestinians are steps in the right direction. Reclaiming Iraq is an important goal in itself and needs more sustained efforts to be achieved. It can't just be a conscious euphoria linked with an Arab reaction to regional developments, like standing up to Iran.

Even the symbolic visit of Mousa to Iraq, the opening of Arab embassies in Baghdad and increasing Iraq's role in the Arab League are significant steps - provided they are followed by genuine efforts to help re-stabilise the country.

Hopefully, Arab leaders meeting in Doha get the point that they need to take initiatives and stop the policy of just reacting to what is imposed on them.

Dr Ahmad Mustafa is a London-based Arab writer.