Syria’s darkest hour

The conflict in Syria becomes more complex every day that it continues and the country’s prospects have only got worse. The daily horrors that Aleppo’s besieged citizens are now experiencing mark a new low, following the collapse of the latest ceasefire, brokered by the United States and Russia, which disturbingly fell apart precisely at the time when world leaders had gathered for the United Nations General Assembly last month. [Yesterday, the Syrian military said a unilateral ceasefire backed by Russia had come into force to allow people to leave besieged eastern Aleppo, a move rejected by rebels who said they were preparing a counter-offensive to break the blockade. State media earlier said the army had opened exit corridors in two designated areas in the Bustan Al Qasr quarter and near the Castello road in northern Aleppo city.]

When the Syrian conflict finally ends, three of its defining features will complicate reconstruction efforts. For starters, parties on all sides of the fight have disregarded international human-rights laws and violated basic humanitarian norms. In fact, blocking humanitarian aid, attacking civilians and targeting sites specially protected by international law have become strategies of war.

Since this April, Syrian hospitals have suffered dozens of attacks and aid has been withheld from some of the most devastated villages. Many hospitals in Aleppo have had to close down after being targeted during the siege. These actions may constitute war crimes and they are sadly not new. In 2015 alone, medical installations in Syria affiliated with Doctors Without Borders incurred 94 attacks, leaving 23 of the organisation’s workers dead and another 58 wounded. Last May, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for all parties involved in Syria to respect international humanitarian law. Now, Security Council members are accusing one another other of violating their own resolution.

A second dynamic that could frustrate any peace effort is the conflict’s complex map of players, all of which will have to be accounted for in a final accord. While this map has changed significantly since the war began, the level of fragmentation within the groups on either side has become increasingly evident lately. Now that the terrorist group Jabhat Al Nusra has changed its name to Jabhat Fatah Al Sham and reportedly dissociated itself from Al Qaida, it is better-positioned to ally with other rebel factions that have also rejected Al Qaida.

But while this rapprochement strengthens the fighting groups militarily, it also blurs the lines between rebels and radicals. This has occurred while rebel groups not closely aligned with Jabhat Al Nusra have become weaker, allowing the Syrian regime to insist that it is not suppressing a rebellion, but fighting a war against terrorism. Thus, at the UN General Assembly, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al Mua’alem accused the United States-led coalition in Syria of abetting terrorist organisations, including Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant).

Some months ago, discussions about a peace process centred on the question of whether Syrian President Bashar Al Assad should go immediately or remain during a transitional government. Now, the question is whether the former Jabhat Al Nusra is a viable partner.

But the pro-Al Assad side has divisions of its own. In addition to the Russian army, Syrian, Iraqi, Iranian and Afghan groups are also fighting for the regime and each of these actors has its own interests.

Some parties’ interests in the war are well-known: Al Assad wants to remain in power; Russia wants to demonstrate its status as a great power capable of resisting the US; and Iran wants to increase its regional influence and secure access to the Mediterranean. When the fighting ends, these positions will only become more entrenched.

A third obstacle in the path towards Syrian peace is the US-Russia stalemate. After so many broken ceasefires, the two countries clearly lack mutual trust. And as Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Center has pointed out, the latest failure could have far more worrying consequences than past diplomatic impasses.

So far, the US and Russia have not only broken off bilateral negotiations; mutual nuclear agreements have also come under threat. After the US accused Russia of committing war crimes in Syria, Russia declared that it was suspending an agreement to dispose of surplus plutonium, unless the US meets certain conditions, including compensating Russia for the costs of western sanctions imposed after Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014.

For its part, the US is in an uncertain position now that rebel factions have regrouped and its direct cooperation with Russia is on hold. US President Barack Obama has only a short time left in office, which makes any major foreign-policy shift under his administration almost impossible. As the battle for Aleppo rages on, so, too, does the US presidential election campaign that will determine his successor.

After more than five years of conflict in Syria, retreating without having found a solution is not an option. Although the new map of players complicates things, there is no doubt that they must all participate in a peace deal. Otherwise, any agreement will prove ephemeral. Likewise, in order to rebuild Syrian civil society for the long term, all of the warring parties will have to take responsibility for their crimes.

The issue of responsibility will be one of the most difficult challenges in the effort to achieve lasting peace. We will need committed leaders both inside and outside Syria. Although the US presidential election will be consequential, it has also become clear that peace cannot be delivered by the US and Russia on their own.

European leaders should step in to restart negotiations. The European Union has mistakenly sat on the sidelines of these talks for too long, despite Syria’s importance to its own security and interests and despite its responsibility to Syria’s citizens. The EU should make every diplomatic and humanitarian effort to bring together all participating parties and end the violence as soon as possible. Only then can Syria’s reconstruction begin.

— Project Syndicate, 2016

Javier Solana was EU high representative for Foreign and Security Policy, secretary-general of Nato and foreign minister of Spain. He is currently president of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics and distinguished fellow at the Brookings Institution.