Symbiotic ties bind India and Myanmar

As the rest of the world focuses on Pakistan's President General (retd.) Pervez Musharraf, undertake a new electoral journey at home, India is quietly preparing a new diplomatic offensive with the military junta in the east, in Myanmar.

Over the past few days, India's Foreign Secretary Shivshanker Menon has been in Naypidaw, the new outpost doubling up as the nation's capital in the heart of Myanmar, within breathing distance of the ancient imperial capital of Pyinmana. Meanwhile, General Maung Aye, the number two military strongman, looks ready to visit India in April.

Clearly, India and Myanmar are engaging in a new diplomatic dance that has some Western capitals biting their nails in nervousness. Or, are they? The UN Secretary-General's special envoy, Ebrahim Gambari's visit to Delhi last week indicates that the United Nations Secretary-General, and by proxy, his chief benefactor the US, are actually okay with India carving out a bigger role in Myanmar, especially if it balances the other influential power, China.

Only a few weeks ago, Myanmar awarded India the right to "build, operate and use'' the port of Sittwe, strategically located in the Bay of Bengal, at a cool $120 million.

The money is not the point, of course. The reason Menon, also a consummate Sinologist, has kept his joy well under control these past days is because he knows it's far too easy to express happiness at the fact that India has won one over China.

In fact, the journey to Myanmar is all about reiterating the symbolism of power and responsibility. When the monks came out in the streets of Yangon in September to protest the mindless brutality of the military regime, they had their begging bowls turned downwards. That was such a powerful symbol of self-denial and abnegation, the likes of which the world has rarely seen, on par with the fasts Mahatma Gandhi often undertook to purify himself as well as the enemy.

In their saffron robes, the colour of sacrifice, and barefoot, the monks were doing exactly the same thing. Their gesture of protest sent a collective shudder through India. The government came out with more than one statement of criticism.

Diplomatic billing

So what does one make of the diplomatic billing and cooing that has since returned? In the new year, Myanmarese Foreign Minister Nyan Win turned up to meet the Indian establishment. Days later, India's Commerce Ministry exultantly announced it had won the right to develop the Sittwe port. By the end of January, Gambari was making a special trip to Delhi to meet the Indian establishment.

In a conversation with this reporter, Gambari said he hoped "India would do more than what it had been doing so far. (India) should work on Myanmar to make the diplomatic process more inclusive and dialogue with the Opposition parties more dialogue-oriented.''

Adding that he was impressed with India's "growing influence'' on Myanmar, Gambari said India should use this leverage to become a trustworthy and effective conduit to both source information as well as send messages to the Myanmarese government.

And so, the penny dropped. Like China, India would not support the imposition of sanctions against Myanmar, just as the US and the European Union wanted. Like the US and the EU, however, India would invoke its democratic credentials to put out that political reconciliation between the military and Aung San Suu Kyi's party was the only alternative to pressure-cooker outbursts within a divided population.

And so a new great game, with Myanmar as the lucrative prize this time, is unfolding on the Indochina chessboard.

Above all, India must maintain a fine balance on Myanmar. With China unveiling its "string of pearls'' strategy across the Indian Ocean, one which envisages a series of bases and ports in friendly countries such as Pakistan and Myanmar - Gwadar, off the Baluchistan coast, and the Coco Islands, Hianggyi, Khaukhphyu, respectively - so as to protect its energy flows, India knows it can hardly afford to play with a straight bat.

After all, in August last year, the Myanmarese junta withdrew the state-owned Gas Authority of India's "preferential buyer'' status on certain offshore gas field blocks and declared it would instead sell to PetroChina.

The Sittwe award also indicates that Myanmar wanted to expand ties, beyond China. But Delhi also compromised by agreeing to change the terms of the project from "build, operate and transfer (BOT)'' to "build, operate and use (BOU).''

Once India agreed that control would rest with Myanmar and it would only be able to "use'' the port - which includes making the Kaladan river in Myanmar navigable all the way upto adjoining Mizoram - it was well and truly on the way to making parts of the North-East "directly connect'' with other parts of India. Especially since Bangladesh had steadfastly rejected Delhi's requests for transport rights of passage.

When General Maung Aye comes to India in April, then, a formal signature on Sittwe is expected. By then, Gambari will have hopefully made a third visit to Myanmar, to press the regime to put the democratic reconciliation back on track.

If the map suddenly seems blurred, and international allegiances confused, here's another nugget to confound the apparent illusion : All three countries, India, Myanmar and China, are deeply Buddhist in one way or another. Perhaps, with a little bit of help from the UN, they could all learn to strive towards the middle path.

Jyoti Malhotra is the Diplomatic Editor of the NewsX TV channel.