Sorting out Afghanistan

The recent Republican gains in the US mid-term elections is certainly good news for the party's supporters. On Afghanistan, there has been a lot of hyper talk in US media about how the victory also translates into good news for the military which they argue will no doubt receive a "massive boost".

US President Barack Obama's critics would further insist that the Democrats' "hand-winging" on Afghanistan have jeopardised the US mission and strengthened the Taliban. In a speech given at West Point back in November, Obama declared his intentions to begin withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in 2011.

Those wishing to see a more robust and longer-term engagement of the US in Afghanistan believe that the Republican victory will inevitably lead to a strengthening of the military, increase in defence budget and a stronger commitment in Afghanistan.

Nonetheless, it would be a mistake to automatically infer that the Republicans' victory would have a significant effect on US strategy in Afghanistan. Although the Democratic Party lost majority in the House Representative, it continues to hold majority in the Senate.

Control over foreign policy issues traditionally rests with the Senate and not with Congress. The president would need the support of Congress regarding issues of treaty ratifications and foreign aid, but other than that, the House of Representatives' influence in matters regarding foreign policy is limited.

Furthermore, Congress has historically shown reluctance to take a strong stand against the president when it comes to similarly issues. For example, in 1994, a Republican Congress approved former president Bill Clinton's plans to send troops to Bosnia and in 2006; the Democrats approved president George W. Bush's plans to launch the "surge" in Iraq.

It is also important to keep in mind that Obama's appointees have control over key positions; Robert Gates is the head of defence, Hillary Clinton is the head of the State Department, Timothy Geithner controls the Treasury, as well as other Obama appointees retain their position as heads of intelligence agencies.

Both Republicans and Democrats have largely ignored Afghanistan and Iraq on the campaign trail. This is because economic issues were a much hotter topic amongst voters and there was internal conflict within the parties.

Some Tea Party members such as Marco Rubio and Sarah Palin favour aggressive US military engagement but many others don't like to see the US caught up in battles abroad.

The central Republicans and conservative Democrats will likely push for a longer engagement in Afghanistan, while other members will be content with a July 2011 withdrawal.

The Republican and Democrat stance on Afghanistan, despite what is often argued, and despite what the politicians themselves are willing to admit, is really not all that different. What did Obama do when he came into office? He signed off on a 30,000 troop increase in Afghanistan, and also approved a raise in military spending. This doesn't seem like something that is much different from what a Republican president would have done.

Perhaps the difference between the two parties when it comes to Afghanistan is not so much their actions, but more about how they phrase it. Republicans would argue that the US defence spending is crucial to making the US ‘safer.' They would also say the US in Afghanistan is fighting ‘terrorism' and weakening Al Qaida. While the Democrats would say, ‘we are there for nation-building, 'empowering the people, and spreading ideas of democracy.'

Staying in Afghanistan is not popular. If the main issue that got the Republicans back into action is their opposition to US handling of the economy; the Republicans will likely shy away from pushing for prolonging the war and further exhausting the economy, if they wish to have a shot at the 2012 presidency

It is clear that Americans are tired of the war, according to recent Rasmussen poll, 48 per cent of those surveyed said ending the war in Afghanistan is more important than winning it.

The economic crisis, massive deficits and prospect of higher taxes will inevitably lead voters to resent the money being spent in Afghanistan.

Dina Khanat is an Arab-American writer based in Dubai.