Pitfalls for Turkey’s policy: will Erdogan find a way?

The downing of the Russian military aircraft by Turkey near the Syrian-Turkish border evoked a number of internal disputes in Turkey, along with new international challenges.

As some analysts say, Turkey’s action can be described as something inexplicable towards its long-standing ally Russia. According to Aykan Erdemir, former member of the Turkish Parliament: “A prolonged crisis with Russia could be fatal for Turkey’s struggling economy.” Russian President, Vladimir Putin, described the incident as a “stab in the back” during his meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah II while on a visit to Russia.

However, looking at the situation from a broader perspective, there are two main questions that have no answer so far: Has President Recep Tayip Erdogan unwittingly “stabbed” himself by bringing his leadership down or was the Turkish “act of war” addressed towards Russia intentionally following Moscow’s invasion in Syria? Nevertheless, the promising bright future between Russia and Turkey is turning into a thing of the past.

Yet, while trying to forecast the consequences of this incident, it is important to consider not only the worsening of the Russian-Turkish economic relations, but also to evaluate the ranking of Erdogan, both inside the country and in the world.

Despite a large number of Erdogan supporters in Turkey, the country’s opposition groups make the majority. It was them who immediately criticized Erdogan for his incident with Russia. But some disagreements within the Justice and Development Party (AKP) is not an exemption. The biggest one occurred in March, 2015 between Erdogan and the Turkish deputy prime-minister Bulent Arink following the disputes on approaches towards the peaceful regulation of the Kurdish conflict. Arink asked the President to stay away from the cabinet’s initiatives regarding that issue while Erdogan made quite an emphatic statement pointing out the fact that he’s the President.

What I find really intriguing is the fact that the drifting position of Erdogan might just be the perfect time for Turkish opposition leader Fethullah Gulen to step in. He is considered to be a popular figure in Turkey after Erdogan, and is famous for his liberal and democratic approach. While he is based in the US, he has a large number of followers in Turkey. After all, aren’t Turkish people known for their open-minded and often pro-European views?

— The reader is a Russian writer based in the US