Obama's new global plans

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and the war in Afghanistan are certainly the most pressing strategic issues facing the Barack Obama administration. Shortly after taking office, the new US President charted a new geopolitical approach to other big powers, with noticeable differences from the Bush era.

There is undoubtedly a real improvement in the Moscow-Washington relationship. During the past two years, they deteriorated so much some analysts spoke of a new Cold War.

Their differences were over the recognition of Kosovo's independence, the US encouragement to Ukraine and to Georgia of adopting a hard line towards Russia, the successive, and not welcome, Nato enlargement and last, but not least, the project of deploying anti-missile defence systems in the Czech Republic and Poland,

Former US President George W. Bush deeply upset Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev. But Russia is no longer the weak country which it used to be under Boris Yeltsin. The Russian power is back. Moscow is in no mood to be overlooked and, as we witnessed in August, 2008, it struck back at Georgia militarily. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently declared that a new and constructive era could open relations between Russia and the US.

Recently, Moscow postponed the planned deployment of missiles in Kaliningrad as a goodwill gesture. The planned missile deployment was a tit-for-tat for a similar plan by US in the Czech Republic and Poland. This postponement is linked to a similar American gesture.

Obama wants to reassess the project regarding its cost and efficiency. During the campaign, he said that he would support the project if it would be technologically adapted and financially sustainable. Obama and Medvedev should have a joint summit in April. It looks like it is time for détente.

On the contrary, the relations with Beijing will likely suffer some setbacks. Obama has accused China of manipulating the Yuan rate in order to help its exports. Tim Geithner, the new US Treasury Secretary, declared that the US President is committed to using all diplomatic tools in order to change Beijing's behaviour.

Concerned with unemployment rates in the US, Obama may try to protect the US market from Chinese goods. The US market is vital for the Chinese economic growth and, therefore, for social peace in China. Now, the commercial balance is largely in favour of China with $200 billion (Dh734 billion) surplus.

Obama will also likely be more dedicated to the Tibetan cause. In fact, this is a popular issue in Hollywood and for human rights associations. However, Beijing will not appreciate a more active US policy on this delicate subject.

Most of all, US relations with India are getting worse and the honeymoon between New Delhi and Washington may be over.

Bush signed a bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement in contradiction with the traditional US nuclear weapons' non-proliferation policy. Bush is perceived in India as a strong ally who supported the accession of India to the elite big powers club.

Obama is eager to sign the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty. Bush didn't hesitate to give up arms control. But Obama is likely to resume it. Will he renegotiate, set aside, or cancel the India-US nuclear agreement? He may also be more outspoken with New Delhi regarding climate change and commercial issues. But it is first and foremost the Kashmir issue that concerns the Indian leadership.

New Delhi neither wants a referendum on self-determination nor internationalisation of the issue. India prefers a bilateral dialogue with Pakistan, the balance of force being in its advantage. But the bilateral approach, due to this inequality, is a dead end. Obama is convinced that this never-ending conflict is a source of destabilisation in Pakistan. Keeping in mind the key role of Pakistan in the Afghan problem, Obama could exert pressure on India over the Kashmir issue.

Dr Pascal Boniface is the founder and director of IRIS (Institut de Relations Internationales et Strategiques). He has published or edited more than 40 books dealing with international relations, nuclear deterrence and disarmament, European security and French international policy.