Six years after the February 17 revolution changed Libya’s political destiny permanently, an informal communication with a senior minister of a neighbouring North African country, hosting dialogue between Libya’s disparate political factions, provided an opportunity for me to share some ideas on the basis of previous interactions with the exiled Libyan opposition leadership. As the United Nations endeavours to retrieve an unruly Libya from the dark abyss of violence, social fragmentation and lawlessness, through installation of a democratically-elected government — whose writ will run all across the country — by next year, the on-going political consultations on the country’s future assume greater importance. And with Russia introducing a new dimension into the peace process, by proposing an all-inclusive national peace congress to end the bitter fratricidal conflict, effort to forge intra-Libyan settlement might get a fresh momentum. Undoubtedly, Libya is in dire need of a viable roadmap for peace and stability, as the country witnesses human rights violations of great magnitude. The UN says, indiscriminate fighting in residential areas has resulted in at least 365 fatalities or injuries in 2017 alone, and alarmingly 79 of them are children.
The February 17 Revolution protagonists’ vision of establishing true democracy and bringing social cohesion through peoples’ revolution, clearly did not materialise. As an exiled Libyan opposition political figure acknowledged candidly: “Things have drastically deteriorated in Libya following the popular uprising that brought down [Muammar] Gaddafi and his regime in 2011,” though choosing to put the blame squarely on the slain dictator for the current spate of instability and lawlessness. Surely, restoring true democracy is the first step towards guiding Libya to a prosperous future.
“Elections are desirable to bring about some normality, but to begin with, the controlling forces and powerful militias from the east, west and south have to agree to an enforceable roadmap” says Anil Trigunayat, India’s former ambassador to Libya. A viable political scenario can emerge only if the stakeholders can create an enabling environment for productive dialogue. “For the time being, UN Roadmap is the only one that has some possibility of bringing about stability in the war-torn fractious country” contends the senior Indian diplomat.
Constant bickering and a free-for-all environment have prevented Libya from building-upon the enormous achievement of holding a successful election (2012) under a transitional constitution drafted in at extremely short notice, feels Trigunayat. And according to the exiled Libyan leader, not adopting the 1951 UN-endorsed constitution, to make Libya a constitutional monarchy, has made the weapon-ridden country slide further into chaos. But, how hopeful are the Libyan political class about a greater international and domestic convergence for restoring peace and stability in their country?
Othman Al Basir, former prime ministerial candidate of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives, is cautiously optimistic, as Libya’s chaotic unrest aggravates. Al Basir, though not in favour of having a Royal figurehead, is of the opinion that this situation as bad as it may be, will ultimately act as a catalyst for creating the right conditions for a more down-to-earth national dialogue between the power rivals.
“There is not much left for them to fight on” says Al Basir, adding, Libya’s recovery depends on a number of factors including, emergence of an unbiased, unaffiliated and reform-minded national leadership with ear to the ground and capable of rallying citizens, regardless of political and regional affiliations, to the cause of drastic politico-economic reforms. Al Basir also cautions that any discord among the international community will undermine Libya’s recovery process.
An elusive political understanding between Libya’s rival governments operating from Tripoli in the west and Tobruk in the east has virtually made it impossible to run a fully functional economy. With Libya’s oil revenues crashing, from $53.2 billion (Dh195.77 billion) down to $10.4 billion per annum, and the country’s debt situation turning extremely grim. Total accumulated debts between the two governments is pegged at $91 billion. The country, on the verge of complete collapse, needs urgent politico-economic resuscitation.
Al Basir admits that the atmosphere is gloomy and sees no substitute for international assistance in the short term. He however, advocates diversification of income sources in future, by investing in Libya’s young human resources as well as exploiting the country’s enormous natural resources and locational advantage. Promoting public-private partnership as a key strategy for realising sustainable growth, in addition to keeping a tight leash on corruption will hasten all-round development and address the domestic security concerns too, feels Al Basir. “Engaging young Libyans in national reconstruction projects will be helpful in weaning them away from the lure of armed insurgency, apart from making them find relevance — through appropriate skill development — in national discourse, and build a sense of pride,” says the world renowned technocrat.
India has, all along, remained actively engaged in Libya’s growth and development by providing capacity building assistance in diverse sectors of the economy. Moreover, Indian companies are participating in Libyan reconstruction process despite various challenges.
“India can chart out the contours of democratic institutions, including in the conduct of elections, apart from contributing in the failing health-care sector and developing a modern IT infrastructure” says Trigunayat.
Al Basir agrees that New Delhi can help Libya in establishing a strong political foundation. “Libyans are also open to receiving assistance from India in setting-up the foundation for a robust knowledge-based economy” says Al Basir.
This apart, Libya’s ailing agricultural infrastructure can benefit from Indian expertise too, in addition to enhanced defence cooperation.
Seema Sengupta is a senior journalist and columnist based in Kolkata, India.
