Delhi’s high-stakes election will test Kejriwal like never before

As we enter a new year, a new election is also around the corner in India: the high stakes battle for Delhi. The Union territory with its 70 seats is a huge prestige battle which will see a triangular fight between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the BJP and the Congress. So much has changed since the AAP won 62 seats in the last election in 2020.

For Arvind Kejriwal, the head of the AAP and the former Delhi Chief Minister, this election is perhaps his most crucial yet. For one, Kejriwal and his senior ministers have spent many months in jail over alleged corruption allegations.

How far this has tainted the AAP’s image with voters will be on test while the AAP hopes to generate the sympathy factor highlighting what they call vendetta politics against them by the BJP and agencies like the Enforcement Directorate or the ED.

Unfortunately for AAP, there did not seem to be much sympathy for them in the general elections 6 months ago, when Kejriwal was given bail by the Supreme Court to campaign for his party.

The BJP won all of Delhi’s 7 parliament seats. However, this has also been a pattern in Delhi in the last decade where the BJP has won parliament but the AAP has beaten them hands down in the assembly polls.

2025 is also different because a large section of voters are also unhappy with AAP over its governance, which has been the central feature of its campaign. Civic problems like waterlogging have frustrated citizens especially with the AAP taking control of municipal bodies as well.

There is no doubt that the frequent tussles with the centre’s appointee, the Lt Governor (LG), has made things very messy with the LG more often than not deliberately making things difficult for the elected government. But not everyone is buying that as an excuse. What can however work in AAP’s favour are the welfare schemes they are pushing. Kejriwal was ahead of the curve when he pushed for welfare politics and gave free electricity and water to Delhi residents along with free bus rides for women.

The results of that were huge victories for the AAP. This time too, the AAP has announced an increase in a monthly stipend for women and free health care for people above the age of 60. These could be gamechangers as schemes like this hold the key now to winning polls for all political parties. Delhi Chief Minister Atishi has said, “I believe that around 35 to 40 lakh women may benefit from the ‘Mahila Samman Yojana.’ Similarly, I estimate that around 10 to 15 lakh senior citizens could benefit from the ‘Sanjeevani Yojana.’ This is a big step, and I encourage everyone to take full advantage of these schemes.”

The fact that the AAP has dropped several sitting MLAs in its candidate list and changed the seats of high profile ministers like Manish Sisodia shows the challenges it faces in this election. It faces a resurgent BJP which, despite the overall setback in the Lok Sabha polls, has done very well in key state polls that have followed like Maharashtra.

The Congress continues to struggle to find a coherent poll strategy so far but how the campaign unfolds in the next few weeks will be key. The Delhi unit of the Congress has always been dead against any tie up with AAP, which essentially ate away at its vote base, but this time it was Kejriwal who went ahead and declared that the AAP would fight alone.

Arvind Kejriwal’s rise in politics since 2013 has been remarkable. These Delhi elections will put him on test like never before.