Delhi polls could mark AAP end if Kejriwal loses
BJP and Congress close in as AAP struggles with voter discontent in Delhi
The Delhi elections are almost upon us, with voting on the 5th of February. It is by far the most challenging electoral battle that Arvind Kejriwal is facing after 10 years in power. But is also a battle that is very much an existential one for his party, the Aam Aadmi Party or AAP.
If Kejriwal loses this election, his party may begin to unravel with consequences far beyond Delhi. It is also the ruling party in Punjab. A loss could trigger off defections and rebellions.
A win for Kejriwal however will strengthen his national position in the opposition camp which has been muddled with differences and a loss of morale after a string of bad performances by the Congress in recent state polls.
A win would further strengthen a view that regional leaders are better off leading the INDIA bloc than the Congress. AAP’s rise to the political centre stage was nothing short of spectacular.
"Outside the establishment"
Riding on the anti Congress wave in 2013 and the anti corruption movement lead by activist Anna Hazare, the AAP was a formidable new force at the time.
With his “outside the establishment” politics and maverick style, Kejriwal became the popular face of this new party. And he has made both the BJP and the Congress nervous.
In the last two Delhi elections, the AAP’s rise came primarily at the cost of the Congress as it ate into the grand old party’s vote share. In the 2020 assembly election, AAP won 62 of the 70 seats with a huge vote share of 54 per cent.
The Congress vote share was just 10 per cent. But there was a warning for the AAP in the 2017 municipal polls where the Congress vote share rose to 21 per cent and the AAP dropped to 26 per cent.
This time, the AAP has been sharply attacking the Congress on the campaign trail with party leaders privately worried that even a small increase in the Congress vote share would hurt the AAP and help the BJP instead. Top AAP leaders believe that anything below 50 seats this time would put them in a spot.
Arvind Kejriwal has not only threatened the Congress vote bank but also been a prime bug bear for the BJP. His Hindutva lite politics and more importantly, his welfare schemes like free electricity and free bus rides for women, have become a template for all states and all political parties including the BJP.
It is no secret that the BJP would like to see the AAP finished once and for all. The BJP’s Delhi campaign is very much on the offensive against AAP and it’s leadership for being “out of touch” with ordinary folks.
Hence they are highlighting the extravagant expenses on the Chief Minister’s residence or the alleged liquor policy scam which saw Kejriwal, his deputy Manish Sisodia and others in jail for many months. We will now see whether any of these accusations have dented Kejriwal’s reputation or image in any way.
Kejriwal under siege
The AAP has always denied the charges and called them a political witch hunt. The last few years have been brutal for Kejriwal. Not just because of the arrests but also losing some of his most trusted faces like Kailash Gahlot who jumped to the BJP only recently.
Having regular run ins with the Delhi Lieutenant Governor has not helped. However despite all this, what may end up helping AAP is the lack of cohesion in the Congress and BJP camps. The Congress is hardly putting up a fight while the BJP lacks a face and is depending on Narendra Modi to do the heavy lifting.
The AAP however is fighting for its survival and it shows.
Nidhi Razdan is an award-winning journalist. She has extensively reported on politics and diplomacy.
