Chavez’s legacy will continue

The fate of Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, hangs in the balance. Last week, he appeared on television to alert his people that his cancer, first diagnosed last year, had taken a serious turn for the worse, as he set off on a fresh journey to Havana for further surgery.

He was in obvious discomfort and admitted to extreme pain. Invoking the memory of his personal hero, Simon Bolivar, the 19th-century liberator of Latin America, he implied that he might not be around for the next stage of his Bolivarian revolution. He announced clearly that his successor would be Nicolas Maduro, the Vice-President since October and the foreign minister since 2006. Then last Wednesday, after a six-hour operation, Maduro made clear in sombre tones that the president’s recovery would be a hard and complex process. The mood in Caracas and throughout Venezuela is now exceptionally bleak, as it begins to dawn on the population at large that the 14-year-old Chavez era is drawing to a close.

There is an immediate timetable for the week. Yesterday, there were elections for governors of the country’s 28 states, which are mostly at the moment in the hands of Chavez supporters. Then, on January 10, there is scheduled to be an inauguration ceremony when Chavez would have been expected to start a new six-year term. That might now be in doubt.

However, in Venezuela, there is no doubt that the Bolivarian revolution presided over by Chavez will be able to soldier on without him. After 14 years of considerable institutional change, huge oil revenues now pour into the alleviation of the acute poverty suffered by a large percentage of the country and there is a rock-solid base of chavista support that will take decades to erode. Chavez also leaves a competent team of ministers at the top, who share the radical vision of Chavez, and in Maduro they have an engaging and collegiate leader.

What Venezuela will lose is the spark of genius and of charismatic leadership that pushed the country on to the world stage. Chavez has been the most important Latin American figure since the emergence of Fidel Castro, more than half a century ago. He has captivated his own people and inspired much of the continent and like Castro, his influence has had a global reach.

More problematic than the stability of Venezuela is the future of the Bolivarian revolution in Latin America. The Bolivarian vision of Chavez to unite the continent has taken great strides in recent years and he has been the driving force. The creation of Unasur in 2008, a continental organisation without the oppressive presence of the US, has been an important step.

Yet, without the leadership of Chavez, the individual countries may find it difficult to collaborate. The Cuba of Raul Castro, or his successor, may eventually put friendship with the US ahead of its warm relationship with Latin America. Evo Morales of Bolivia is a charismatic leader, best placed to take over the role of Chavez, yet can an Indian from a small country lead a continent where prejudice is still a problem?

The same goes for Rafael Correa of Ecuador, an intelligent leader from another small country, with something of Chavez’s imagination and vision, but without the resources to make a continental impact. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner of Argentina is another attractive and popular leader at home, yet Argentinians have never cut much ice outside their own country. Portuguese-speaking Brazil has never aspired to lead Latin America, and never will, even when Lula eventually returns as president.

This may be too pessimistic a view — for the image of a democratic and incorruptible leader who once sought to change the history of the continent — but it will last long into the 21st century.

— Guardian News & Media Ltd

Richard Gott is the author of Hugo Chavez and the Bolivarian Revolution.