Change in Arab world is for real

No one claimed change would come easy. The Arab world had been cocooned, isolated and resisted change for generations. Since the end of last year it has seen changes that have caught political scientists, and pundits, let alone intelligence and Mukhabarat agencies, leaders and laymen by surprise, due to its magnitude and scope which none had anticipated. Few if any, believed we would witness the end of the practices of oppression, corruption, abuse of power and intimidation by these regimes in our lifetime.

Who would have thought in their wildest dreams that six months into 2011, we would have the entrenched regimes of Tunisia's Zine Abidine Bin Ali and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak toppled and the leaders gone into exile or no longer in their palaces and under trial for decades of ruthlessness and corruption? Who would have thought the minority Syrian regime of Al Assad dynasty along with the dean of the Arab rulers Muammar Gaddafi and Yemen's Ali Abdullah Saleh's regimes would be on the ropes kicking and fighting back with brutality to hang on to power?

Who would have thought Nato, which prides itself for winning the Cold War without firing a single shot, would be entangled in an Arab country — Libya to save the Libyan people from their own dictator, while turning a blind eye towards other Arabs who are being slaughtered in other Arab countries in this Arab Spring.

Who would have thought that people in these countries and elsewhere in the Arab world would be empowered so quickly to break decades of fear and neglect and be able to freely voice their opinion?

They gathered long-lost courage to take to the streets in million-men marches, demanding the fall of these regimes which have brutalised, ripped them off and crushed their dreams for too long. They broke the fear barrier, learning from other revolutions, using the news media, and its social outlets like twitter, facebook and YouTube along with satellite news channels as soft power to stand up to those in power and took their children as witnesses to experience what their fathers and grandfathers did not, in order not to be cowed and humiliated but to stand up to their rights and beliefs. This is beyond belief, by any stretch of the imagination!

There is fear of a creeping revolution fatigue. There are also genuine worries of bids to steal the mass effort in a counter-offensive, by those who are yearning for the old sense of stability and security that the toppled regimes used to provide and by those who reaped the benefits of those regimes.

The fear that the Arab Spring is stalling is ominous and alarming.

Richard Hass, the head of the prestigious Council of Foreign Relations, argued persuasively in a recent piece in Financial Times, albeit in a pessimist tone, "The outside world, fearing the alternative and bogged down in Libya, is little more than a bystander. Syria's violence is just one further sign that the promise of the Arab Spring has given way to a long, hot summer in which the geopolitics of the Middle East are being reset for the worse."

Second paradigm

None of the so-called Arab revolutions have reached their final stages. All of them, including Egypt and Tunisia, which witnessed a quick and semi-peaceful toppling and transfer of power, are still witnessing the pangs of change.

Just last Friday Egyptians called for another million-man march demanding the fall of the regime and its cronies and to cleanse it from those remnants and practices. Now they are demanding the toppling of the military rule.

In Tunisia, many demonstrated in support of more Islamic practices while their opponents took to the streets protesting the growing Islamic and conservative tilts in Tunisia since the toppling of Bin Ali's regime.

As I argued in an earlier piece, "the other bloody change" — the second paradigm of change is the violent and bloody one in Libya, Syria and Yemen. There the change is bloody with forces of change being countered by excessive use of power. This could lead not only to chaos and disorder, but more ominously to civil wars, fragmentations and dismemberment of these countries and societies."

That paradigm is still unfolding in a graphic and brutal display in these countries for all to see on their TV screens. There is genuine fear that the Arab Spring is turning into a hot summer or even frigid winter if the bloody paradigm should prevail.

Even if the Arab Spring gains traction and succeeds, there is a daunting task ahead. Grounds must be laid for accountability, reforms, may be even a new constitution and limits on the power of executives and more power in the hands of the masses, civil societies and legislatures. This will take time and dedication to come to fruition.

In the final analysis, revolutions and change are a messy business and are basically works in progress. But we have to be patient and careful.

The Arab Spring and the winds of change sweeping our region, and heralding an end to chronic instability which plagued us for generations, perpetuating the rule of autocratic Arab rulers could be wishful thinking, but hopefully, not a pipedream.

Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is Chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University.