Negotiations will be complicated, drawn-out and risky and will have to be undertaken with careful political judgement
The Canada-European Union trade agreement (Ceta) has finally been signed — two years after negotiations were actually concluded. Yet, it is still good news. The world desperately needs more international trade agreements. In an age where structural deficits, loose money and low growth are becoming the norm, trade expansion represents one of the few tools to spur job creation and economic growth in developed countries. Canadians understand this reality better than most; our bipartisan support for an initiative like this trade deal is rare in this era. As you embark on the uncharted path of Brexit, political and business leaders in the United Kingdom can look to Ceta as a model for a modern, robust, comprehensive trade deal.
The first lesson, though, is that there is no shortcut to such an agreement. Our trade discussions with the European Union (EU) began in 2007, but negotiations did not begin for another two years. We did, however, use the intervening period productively. Our government conducted extensive consultations with sub-national governments, businesses and citizens to ensure we established realistic parameters and expectations for our eventual negotiating mandate.
This early work may not be headline-grabbing for politicians, but it is crucial. Without well-established consultative frameworks and substantive trust-relationships with citizens and key industry advocates, political leaders will find themselves isolated from the very interests they proclaim to represent at the negotiating table. The next step — the five years of negotiations beginning in 2009 — were likewise more laborious than dramatic. With the silence periodically punctuated by the demands of protectionists and the claims of opponents, they were also not easy. But leaders must ignore these siren songs if they are confident in their strategy and the quality of their preparation. Comprehensive deals that cross all sectors of the economy are not simple.
They must be negotiated in private with steely perseverance, excruciating attention to detail and steadfast patience. Tactical distractions, extraneous crises and negotiation fatigue are real dangers. They can only be mitigated with adherence to the longer-term strategy and determination to dispense with diversions. The role of business leaders is critical. We worked closely with business groups to ensure that any agreement with Europe would translate into better jobs and higher wages for Canadians. UK business leaders must now reach out to Prime Minister Theresa May to convey similar messages to the British people. But while business can accurately point the government to real gains and losses from international trade deals, it must never forget that the government has the broader interests of the population in mind.
Political leaders will rise and fall with the support of that broader electorate, not with more narrow business concerns. Today, Ceta is enjoying its moment in the sun. We have earned a hard-fought victory to secure economic growth and prosperity for our people. But the work is not done. Significant efforts remain to complete ratification and, most importantly, to realise the export opportunities. It is still important to resist the temptation to cry “mission accomplished”.
Nevertheless, this is a significant achievement and one that clearly illustrates the opportunities and risks facing the UK. Canada, standing outside a broader political and economic union, has succeeded in negotiating free-trade agreements with 51 nations. This encompasses most of the major markets in the Americas, Europe and Asia (including the unratified Trans-Pacific Partnership). Canada has deep economic integration with the United States, without surrendering its sovereignty or unique national character. This seems to me to be what the UK desires in its relationship to the EU. So it can be done. But it will take considerable time, come with significant risk and require careful political judgement.
— The Telegraph Group Limited, London, 2016
Stephen Harper is also the chairman of Harper & Associates.
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