Can Bush survive his second term?

From an unpopular (and unwinnable) war to questionable domestic wiretapping to alleged White House vendettas against political enemies to calls for censure or impeachment to record low approval ratings, President George W. Bush's second term could just as easily be that of former President Richard M. Nixon.

Ironically, it was the erosion of presidential power following Nixon's resignation and the rout in Vietnam that the Bush Administration has sought to reverse. The cornerstone of Bush's legacy, of even greater significance than his campaign for democracy in the Middle East, is whether or not he succeeds in restoring presidential powers and privileges.

After all, senior administration officials have been quick to emphasise the long-term view when discussing problematic results on the reform front and devastating setbacks in Iraq. But of more immediate concern are the ongoing court battles and Democratic challenges to his pursuit of constitutional powers curbed after Watergate. Whether Bush prevails or fails, the outcome will define his presidency and impact his successors'.

Aside from holding detainees indefinitely in Guantanamo Bay and other war-related measures, currently the most obvious example of Bush's vigorous offensive for reclaiming presidential prerogatives is the secret eavesdropping programme that skirted post-Vietnam Era safeguards.

Due to Nixon's use of wiretaps to monitor political enemies, the Carter Administration ushered in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978. FISA courts review and, with rare exceptions, approve government requests for wiretaps.

Not good enough for many senior officials, veterans of the Ford Administration (1973-76) like former chief of staff Donald Rumsfeld and his then deputy Dick Cheney, who long opposed FISA's curbs on presidential authority.

As Cheney said late last year, after the secret programme was leaked to the New York Times, "The president of the United States needs to have his constitutional powers unimpaired, if you will, in terms of the conduct of national security policy. That's my personal view".

The personal view of Nebraska senator and possible Democratic presidential contender Russ Feingold is quite different. He introduced legislation last month to censure Bush for the programme. According to a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, slightly more than 4 out of 10 Americans agree: predictably, 2/3 of Democrats; half of independents; and barely 1 in 6 Republicans.

Dissatisfied

Of course, most Americans are more concerned about the war in Iraq, skyrocketing energy prices, the troubled health care system, and the debate over immigration reforms. On each of these issues, at least 60 per cent of Americans are dissatisfied with Bush's performance.

Add to Republican woes a political disappearing act: Bush's much vaunted command of public support for the war on terrorism and national security has vanished. According to last week's poll, his approval rating on those issues hovers at 50 per cent.

Going from bad to worse, a familiar trend midway through Bush's second term, another batch of scandals threatens to engulf the White House.

The first will further reduce Bush's credibility as a moral leader and as a staunch defender of America's national security interests; the second will badly tarnish the reputation of the Republican Party and inflict additional public relations damage to the White House.

There is the oft-forgotten investigation into the leak of a CIA agent's identity, wife of one of the Administration's most vocal and authoritative critics, former US Ambassador Joseph Wilson. The federal prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald has uncovered "a plan to discredit, punish or seek revenge against Mr Wilson".

Equally troubling, convictions and indictments stemming from the 2002 New Hampshire Senate race include fairly compelling circumstantial evidence that links a former Republican campaign operative, James Tobin, to the White House political affairs office, led by Ken Mehlman, now the party chairman. Republicans won what was a very tight race. John Sununu defeated Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, 51 per cent to 46 per cent.

Tobin was recently convicted of plotting to jam phones at Democratic get-out-the-vote centres. One centre was affected, and other campaign officials stopped the plan from being fully implemented.

But in the three days leading up to and including the election, Tobin placed dozens of calls to Mehlman's office. Standard operating procedure, according to Republicans; Democrats allege the calls prove that Mehlman had to be aware of Tobin's phone jamming scheme.

Adding to the intrigue, the party is picking up Tobin's legal bills.

When combined with dangerously low polling numbers, these scandals could bolster public support for Feingold's move to censure the president, particularly if the senator attracts more independents. But censure is not impeachment. It's a serious slap-on-the-wrist, nothing more.

In addition, the only aspect of Bush's conduct that can be discussed in any censure-related Congressional debate or hearing is his handling of the secret eavesdropping.

In the end, the president's blind ambition and misguided loyalty to discredited senior officials, principally Cheney and Rumsfeld, may lead to defeat for his party and indelibly stain his record. The real tragedy is that American values, which he so loudly trumpets abroad, seem of little consequence to him at home.

Bush will survive his second term. The question remains: will America?

Maggie Mitchell Salem is a political and communications consultant based in Washington, DC. Previously, she was director of communications at the Middle East Institute and a special assistant to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.