Banking on Russian support to survive

In his latest interview with the foreign media, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad told the Sunday Telegraph that he was totally relying on Russian support in the UN Security Council to prevent the western powers from repeating the Libyan scenario in Syria. Foreign Minister Walid Al Mua'allem reiterated his president's position and told reporters at a press conference that he does not think that Russia would change its position on the Syrian crisis.

In fact, since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Damascus has been seeking to protect itself from western pressure by trying to revive its Cold War era relations with Moscow. Under the bipolar mantle of the Cold War, both the Soviet Union and the US sought regional clients to enhance their position vis-a-vis the other in a global struggle for world-wide supremacy. In such a climate, the fall of a client state was considered as a set-back for the patron. Small powers benefited a lot from this system, wherein most had found a shelter under the wings of one of the superpowers. By seeking to develop strategic ties with Russia, the Syrian regime believes that it could replay the alignment game of the Cold War and hence ensure survival.

The world financial crisis, which has badly hit western economies, and the rise of non-western economic powers have encouraged some to believe that a new international system is in the making and that a Russian-Chinese coalition is well-equipped to lead an anti-West camp. Bearing in mind the Russian anger over the western manipulation of UN resolutions to topple Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, the Syrian regime was in particular convinced that Russia will not allow the US to remove another anti-West regime in the Middle East. The failure of the West to obtain a resolution from the UN Security Council to condemn the Syrian regime for its brutal crackdown against protesters was used to support this argument. Russia and China used the veto to block the resolution.

Strategic belt

Indeed, Russia is becoming increasingly aggressive in challenging the will of the US and its western allies on many world issues. Yet, it is quite unwise to interpret Russia's new assertiveness as a desire to challenge the US or re-engage in another Cold War with the West. The international situation is still very much in favour of the US and there is no world power that has the will and the resources, at least for the next 10 years, to challenge US hegemony. Russia in particular could not prevent the US from penetrating its strategic belt in Caucasia and Central Asia. Key former Soviet Republics have also been lost to the US. Nato has advanced eastward taking most of Eastern Europe and approaching Russia's western frontiers. A country that could not secure its adjacent strategic sphere is most unlikely to rise up to the challenge and try to confront the West in other regions.

In addition, the record of the past few years suggests that Russia could not, on any occasion, resist the US pressure in matters related to its foreign and security interests as a sovereign state. The last of these occasions happened when Russia could not veto resolution 1929 in the UN Security Council that imposed sanctions against Iran's nuclear programme despite Russia's huge investments in this country.

In fact, Russia seeks western technologies, markets, and trade partnerships more than confrontation. The Syrian regime would be mistaken to assume that Russia would not change its position should its national interests deem that necessary. Russia did it on Serbia, Iraq, Iran, and on every other occasion when the right price was paid by the West. Instead of relying on unreliable Russian support to confront its problems, the Syrian regime must change course and stop using brutal force to stifle the democratic movement. The problem of the Syrian regime this time is with the Syrian people not with the international community; and as more Syrians get killed, Russia's immoral position will become untenable.

Clearly, Syria has not been cornered because of the smart western policies but because of the brutality which has been used to handle this whole crisis from the very beginning. As one US official once put it: "The US does not need to think hard about what to do with Syria. All we have to do is to count its mistakes". This is exactly what has been happening over the past few months. The Syrian regime should not claim therefore that the world is plotting against it, because there is no need to plot as long as the regime handles this issue in such an awkward manner. 

Dr Marwan Kabalan is dean of the Faculty of International Relations and Diplomacy at Kalamoon University in Damascus, Syria.