AAP's defeat in Delhi raises existential questions

The Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) defeat in Delhi assembly elections has huge ramifications. The Indian state may be small, but it’s impact is big. Here are the key takeaways:

1) The BJP dominance in India’s electoral politics is here to stay. The party has completely overturned the narrative after its below par performance in the Lok Sabha polls and shown it is a force to be reckoned with in state after state since then. The wins in Haryana, Maharashtra and now Delhi after 27 years have consolidated its position.

2) The AAP now faces a serious existential crisis. The defeat of its top leaders -- Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia -- is a body blow which will have an immediate impact in Punjab where the party is in power. How Kejriwal positions himself in opposition will be interesting to see but his more immediate problem may be to ensure his party does not unravel through defections.

The AAP’s weaknesses include a lack of clear ideology and power centred only around Kejriwal. Not having a strong second rung is a big drawback for AAP. Kejriwal moved away from his “Aam Aadmi” image to someone who was no longer accessible. The controversy over his expensive new home added fuel to the fire. While AAP faced the onslaught of agencies and a hostile centre, even areas like civic infrastructure where they could have done better they did not.

3) The middle class shifting away from AAP has been a major factor in its loss. This shift was already visible before the BJP lead central government announced tax incentives for the salaried middle class in the budget on the 1st of February. This along with higher wages for government employees under the pay commission only cemented the middle class move to the BJP in Delhi after giving Kejriwal a huge mandate the last two times. The poor however largely stayed with AAP which is a lesson for all political players. Maybe the opposition needs to concentrate on being the voice of the most marginalised.

4) Divided they fall. The INDIA bloc is in big trouble. While much of the vote that AAP lost in Delhi went directly to the BJP, the Congress did play spoiler in 14 seats.

Data shows that the Congress’ Sandeep Dikshit took over 3000 votes which is almost the exact same margin as Kejriwal’s loss in that seat. The Congress and AAP vote share added together would have changed the result altogether. Even though the AAP and the Congress are in alliance at the national level, the gloves were off in Delhi as they traded charges.

The Congress meanwhile performed badly again, another blow to the party in a string of defeats after the Lok Sabha polls. This means it will be the target of more anger within the INDIA bloc and this will strengthen the view that only a regional leader like Mamata Banerjee can lead the alliance.

But as I have argued before, the Congress is still the only pan India opposition party, so any opposition bloc that has to succeed needs the Congress to get its act together. The INDIA bloc has no clear ideological thread that holds them together except for being anti-BJP.

5) It is imperative for institutions like the Election Commission to be more transparent about the election process. The opposition has raised some serious questions which need to be addressed head on.

But perhaps the biggest lesson of all is that no politician should take voters for granted. The AAP came to power on an anti corruption plank and made a virtue out of being the outsiders , of being “different”.

Somewhere along the way, despite some of the good work they did, they lost their way. The road ahead is bumpy and full of challenges.