A triumph for Bhutto?

When Pakistan's former prime minister Benazir Bhutto lands in Karachi this Thursday, her homecoming will be closely watched by friends and foes alike.

Bhutto's return after more than eight years in exile may well be the most vital political event for the south Asian country, which sets the pace for Pakistan's future.

To her foes, Bhutto's recent move towards political rapprochment with soon-to-be (hopefully) retired General Pervez Musharraf, marks the biggest sell-out by her Pakistan People's Party, which had built its credentials on the anti-military and anti-establishment planks.

But if events before and after Bhutto's return force Musharraf to step down from his military post, that in itself will be a significant contribution to the cause of returning Pakistan to more representative, civilian rule.

Just as Rome was not built in a day, it would be unrealistic to expect a significant miracle from Bhutto to rapidly change the future political course of her country. And yet, Bhutto's return marks the comeback of a politician who has spent most of her three decades in politics, staying the course by challenging Pakistan's ruling order.

While Bhutto's comeback takes place in the shadow of significant controversies, her contribution to moving Pakistan towards democracy cannot be easily ignored. While her critics will recall that her two previous governments were both dismissed on charges of corruption, it is also true that none of the major accusations against Bhutto have been conclusively proven.

More importantly for Pakistan, Bhutto's re-entry to her country's politics will mark the bold return of a mainstream politician in years, following a conscious effort by Musharraf to keep both Bhutto and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif out of the country.

The absence of Bhutto and Sharif had cost their parties dearly in terms of taking away from them their essential centres of political gravity. But events are now proving that Musharraf's strategy to run Pakistan without the presence of at least one of the two mainstream leaders, is failing very badly.

Entry

Simply put, Musharraf's Pakistan remains in the danger with Bhutto's entry back to politics. As a desperate last minute bid, Musharraf just in the past few days has urged Bhutto to delay her planned return, on the grounds that she must wait till an important case challenging his own presidential election on October 6 is settled. The challenge comes primarily on the grounds that as a serving military chief, Musharraf did not have the right to contest the presidential election.

Bhutto has made a politically savvy choice by promising to return irrespective of Musharraf's advice. For the people of Pakistan, her comeback promises to change the political mood in the country. The mobilisation of her supporters that has already taken place indeed marks possibly the first time ever that a Pakistani politician has received this much popular support during Ramadan - a period typically set aside for fasting in addition to special daily prayers. Bhutto will clearly disappoint the people of Pakistan if she delays her return and that too upon the advice of Pakistan's ruling general.

Upon her return to Pakistan, Bhutto will certainly face a host of challenges. These could range from direct threats emanating from militant groups which have promised to block her political return, to the danger of dealing with a ruling regime whose commitments cannot be taken at face value.

But if a recent opinion poll from the US based International Republican Institute carries any validity, Bhutto remains the front-runner in her home province of Sindh and in Balochistan.

There is no reason why her mercurial political style will not help her lift her credentials in Punjab, which is the largest among Pakistan's four provinces and holds the key to the success of any national politician. In the ultimate analysis, Bhutto's return to Pakistan marks the end of a long awaited comeback, and will add to the excitement surrounding Pakistan's otherwise democracy-starved political order.

Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters.