A theatre for a new 'cold war'

The deadly blast at Marriott Hotel in the top security area of Islamabad, the nation's federal capital, has convulsed Pakistan's social, political, and security fabric. It has taken the foreign policy and security debate to the boiling point where the new government has to take certain critical strategic decisions.

The South Asian nuclear armed nation has currently been in the most difficult phase of its history. Its political leadership has been facing severe pressure in the wake of ongoing military operation in the Tribal and North West Frontier Province (NWFP), the US cross-border attacks in Pakistan, rising inflation, electricity shortage, and economic crises.

Other political parties, including the Nawaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), have polarised the public opinion on issues.

The blast shredded the hotel and triggered a fire that raged for hours through the building, killing more than 53 innocent people and injuring 250 others.

The attack was conducted when people, including women and children, were gathered for Iftar dinner in Ramadan - a month in which Islam strictly prohibits bloodshed and war to its followers.

The deeply divided political leadership on the so-called "war on terror", apparently looks blind to the dire consequences the country could face and sticking to their predetermined agendas.

An overwhelming majority of the people are, in fact, tired of the continuous death and destruction and the so-called US-led "war on terror", thus leaving a limited space for President Asif Ali Zardari to manoeuvring on the daunting challenges on both national and international fronts.

He is currently visiting Washington and people expect from him bold and critical decisions with a degree of urgency.

The September 20 blast is virtually an attack on Pakistan's very heart and could be part of a broader conspiracy against Pakistan. It was undoubtedly well-planned and carried out with sophistication to deliver a stern message to Islamabad to reconsider its policies.

The target would have been the Parliament House where the entire top military brass and government machinery was sitting under one roof with a strange and high risk negligence.

Succeeded

The terrorists have, however, succeeded in fanning the existing anti-American public sentiments, confusion among the leadership, and shattering the nation's confidence on the security and intelligence apparatus.

Though Pakistan has blamed Taliban for the attack, so far no organisation has accepted its responsibility. The battle against Al Qaida and Taliban militants has also cost the lives of more than 1,300 people in Pakistan this year.

What, in fact, has been baffling the experts is the provision of training, high quantity of weapons and explosive material, the sophisticated communication links, and selection of high value target in Pakistan.

Some high ranking officials in Islamabad have also pointed a finger to covert foreign hands for their involvement in the blast as part of their effort to destabilise the post-Musharraf Pakistan when it is standing on a critical junction.

After the Marriott blast, the chances of Pakistan's becoming the fresh centre of the new cold war with the resurgent Russia have increased.

Confusion also continues to hunt Pakistan, the US, and their other allies in identifying the two elements of militancy. One is Pakistan's own tribesmen who are against the bombing of their areas by the Pakistani security forces.

The second is the foreign militants that are not only using Pakistani territory as a sanctuary, but also creating problems across the border in Afghanistan. This latter is also exploiting the anti-government sentiments of the local militants to use them for strikes in the country.

It has become paramount for Islamabad to first remove the impression of fighting the US war on its soil from the minds of its own people. It was at one stage an American war, but it has now become Pakistan's own war to clean its own corridor from home grown militants and foreign elements.

Bringing peace and stability on Pakistan's western border must carry a high importance for Islamabad and its Western allies to preventing the start of a looming cold war in the region.

During his current visit to the US, Zardari must convince President George W. Bush and Nato to restrict their activities only inside Afghanistan as per the UN mandate.

Islamabad, however, should not disengage Washington completely, but persuade it to understand the rapidly changing situation when Russia is looking poise to turn the table in Afghanistan on the US and its allies.

Both the US and Pakistan should not forget that the same country - Afghanistan - that led to the breakup of former Soviet Union has all the ingredients to become a battlefield to teach them a bitter lesson.

The Hamad Karzai-led Afghan government is backed by Northern Alliance, an alliance of anti-Taliban Afghan groups that is also anti-Pakistan and has close links with Pakistan's arch rival India, a former staunch ally of the former Soviet Union.

If the front is extended to Pakistan, it would destabilise the entire South Asian region with a strong fall out for the Middle East and other parts of the world.

The US economy is already under pressure and an escalation in Afghan war with a destabilised Pakistan will be devastating.

Kremlin has now been acting fast to prevent Washington's strategic encroachments in Europe and Asia, and is ready to en-cash their blunders. Georgia and Ukraine are already facing the heat of a militarily resurgent Russia.