A man of Great Expectations

Every so often, we in the Arab world become fixated on the arrival of a new or the renewal of an old face in the White House. And every so often, we come to realise - usually half way through the presidency or at its very end - that things have not fallen into what we had hoped for.

In 2008, the Arab world should not be fooled into believing that the new president-elect does not fit the criteria of "|every so often". In fact, it is naive to believe that Barack Obama would bring about the desperately needed change to the Middle East region.

Don't get me wrong here, as this is not meant to underestimate the importance of this year's election given the circumstances inside America as much as around the globe. It is also not to undermine what Obama had brought about during one of the most energetic campaigns. Unquestionably, he had injected a level of charismatic dynamism into the electoral race that has not been seen for some time now.

Cocktail

Perhaps the appeal was because of his colour and his background. Perhaps it was his trotting across various cultures and surroundings while growing up, which had left an imprint on his personality. And perhaps it is because of his relatively young age and excellent oratory skills in comparison to his losing rival.

The cocktail of race, age, and background is explosively dynamic. If we had been living when justice prevailed and people were counted for their merit rather than ethnicity, then electing Obama for president would not have been a talking point at all. But times are different after all.

Looking at 'Obamamania', Obama stepped into the limelight when the US has got trapped on the international front in a series of failed policies under the Bush administration. This has surely assisted him in advancing on many frontiers as his counterpart was viewed as a continuation of the outgame regime and could make the same old mistakes and pitfalls. If, as president, Obama stays away from becoming tied down by a narrow minded-group of advisers - like the neocons previously - then there is a possibility that a broader and more reconciliatory approach towards global issues is adopted.

But more importantly, Obama is here when the world is engulfed in a global financial crisis that has originated in the US - also partially a result of past failed economic policies. The meltdown of mega financial conglomerates and the nosedive of a superpower's stock market has helped Obama substantially.

And this brings us to the new president's approach to issues of concern to the region. The Middle East will surely not be on his radar - at least for the first 12-16 months simply because there are many more things to fix at home. The growth rate of the US economy will slow down immensely - if not completely halt - in 2009, according to experts. When the time comes for Obama to give some attention to the region's issues, the Arab world should be aware that his stance on critical issues are dangerous as much as alarming.

Obama promises to end the US presence in Iraq, which is welcomed by some. But pulling out without establishing a substitute is only an easy way out of a messy situation. In fact, there is no mention of any commitment to the more challenging and difficult task - that of nation-building and ensuring the working of a democratic process. A pull out is not equivalent to stability.

Premise

Hence, if the problem is being defined as the failure of the ex-president in "holding the Iraqi government accountable", it would the wrong pretext to pull the troops out. The premise "to press Iraqis to take the responsibility at home, and restore America's security and standing in the world" is a fallacy. What about the accountability of a superpower over its occupation of five long years? How responsibly did it act to the occupation's repercussions?

Obama's stance on yet another major regional issue - the Palestinian-Israeli conflict - is also less impressive, albeit not unusual compared to any presidential candidate. The all-out, on all counts, pro-Israel speech delivered to the American Israel Public Relations Committee (AIPAC) in June came as a refresher of his assurances. "We know that the establishment of Israel was just and necessary, rooted in centuries of struggle and decades of patient work. But 60 years later, we know that we cannot relent, we cannot yield, and as president I will never compromise when it comes to Israel's security", said Obama.

He further promised to implement the provision of $30 billion (Dh110 billion) in assistance over the next decade as "investments to Israel's security". "We should export military equipment to our ally Israel under the same guidelines as Nato. And I will always stand up for Israel's right to defend itself in the United Nations and around the world."

And although Obama gave his blessings to a two-state solution, he insisted that it should exist without Hamas being part of it even if its win came through the ballot box.

Moreover, any talk about Occupied Jerusalem is rejected as Obama explicitly stated that it should remain the "unified capital of Israel", a comment he vaguely tried to clarify later, even though it is still a city under occupation as per international law.

Nowhere did Obama make even a brief mention of the life of misery and hardship that the millions of Palestinians encounter on a daily basis either as a result of living under occupation or because they are being treated as second-class citizens. And he was silent on the inhuman blockade that is suffocating the civilian population of Gaza.

For Obama to be the president is change. But change should not be of mere colour. And with anticipations excessively soaring beyond any ceiling, only time will tell if he is indeed a man of great expectations.