If the point was curtailed at all in last week’s piece, the fact that the Gulf economies still leave a comparatively favourable impression relative to other blocs is reiterated in bits and pieces from one emerging analysis to the next.

Global influences hold sway in key respects that govern market sentiment — and have been no less weighty in the past week — but local factors arguably still have a firm enough feel about them. It’s just that they can’t really be considered adequately in isolation.

Apart from the headline economic indicators that are routinely perceived as comfortable, the financial side of things — so much an issue in other blocs — show reassuring tendencies too (see box).

According to research by Bank Audi on the UAE, monetary aggregates are progressing soundly by way of healthy capital inflows and accelerated credit growth; liquidity is “sufficient but not excessive”. Banks are solidly-capitalised and lending activity improving.

Even so, there is another side to the coin. A reasonable assumption is typically made that regional government budgets are bound at some point to be constrained by the diminution of oil receipts at current price levels, even though Brent has regained roughly a third of the ground lost in recent months by climbing back through $60 a barrel. Some business slowdown is the natural counterpart.

According to the latest check by Capital Economics, current account positions in parts of the Gulf have switched from surplus into deficit. In these countries (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain) “foreign exchange reserves are now being drawn upon … though not at a pace that would raise serious concerns”.

Indeed talk has arisen that production prospects for US shale in the medium term are being decimated and with remarkable rapidity, appearing to vindicate Saudi Arabia’s decision to hold the line on current Opec (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) quotas if so. The upturn in oil prices is set to continue on that basis, subject to undiscounted and perhaps unforeseen events in global affairs.

Clearly, though, it’s not anticipated that oil will breach three-digit levels again for a while. That being the case, reports have been that the Gulf states are again entertaining the idea of sales taxes (VAT or value-added tax) to secure revenues to bolster their accounts, for sustainability.

Undoubtedly, even while calculating that oil will rebound, the authorities will be crunching the numbers on what can be achieved to keep finances and expenditures within preferred territory.

A recent study by BoA Merrill Lynch suggested that “the arithmetic of the growth model remains unfavourable without reforms”.

The bank advised “every $10 drop in oil prices mechanically shaves 3.4 per cent and 4.2 per cent of GDP off fiscal and current account balances [in turn]. As such, we now forecast aggregate twin deficits for the GCC of 8.4 per cent of GDP and 3.0 per cent [respectively]” in 2015. Real GDP growth of 2.3 per cent is forecast, slowing from 4 per cent last year “on account of flattish hydrocarbon production and softer non-hydrocarbon sector activity.”

As to whether oil’s decline will lead to a self-correcting bounce through pickup overseas, that prospect is somewhat cloudy, it seems. Globally the impact might be to raise output from 3.3 to 3.5 per cent growth, by way of not only the income effect but also the reaction of central banks to respond further to low inflation.

BoA ML’s report warned that, historically, lower prices have had a lesser impact than higher prices contrarily do in the US, while the benefit may be slight in Europe if only lasting briefly. Japan’s energy dependence would mean it gained more, perhaps by as much as 1 per cent in growth, whereas emerging Asian consumers would also react well to lower fuel prices especially. China would see both winners and losers, owing to the sizeable presence of its oil companies.

Today, Gulf stocks are unsurprisingly directionless while we wait to find out (i) whether the Eurozone will hold together, (ii) what happens to Ukraine, (iii) whether oil can sustain any bullishness, and (iv) any further pointers about US or Chinese recovery.

In the meantime, we can at least believe that the region’s economy itself presents fewer issues of concern.