Indian rupee at 30-day high - Why UAE NRIs should delay next fund transfer

Dubai: Indian expats in the UAE thinking of remitting funds could get better rates if they delay by a few days, with the rupee currently near its highest point in the last 30 days. A dirham was getting 23.11 as exchange rate last evening and opened today at 23.2.

But there are signs that the dollar (and dirham) could gain over the next week, and if that happens, NRIs in the Gulf would be better placed to get more out of their fund transfers to India, say FX analysts.

“The INR is showing signs of weakening based on early trends today,” said Neelsh Gopalan, Treasury Manager at a Dubai remittance platform. “Last evening’s 23.11 was clearly not favourable for Indian expats based on AED-INR levels of the last 30 days. If they wait, there is a good chance the INR will go back to 23.3-23.4 levels.”

The lowest the INR has been to a dirham over the last 30 days was 23.62 on June 23.  

The US markets are closed today on account of the country’s Independence Day anniversary, and it would be Monday before there are clear indications of what investors are doing – and what it means for the dollar. Especially after the US approved the passage of the ‘Big Beautiful’ budget bill that President Trump was backing strongly.  

If the dollar firms up from next week, the rupee's likely trajectory could be a broad range between 23.25 to 23.5 against the dirham (or Rs85.4 to Rs86.2 to USD), according to Subramanian Sharma, Promoter-Director, Greenback Advisory Services.

The INR short-term prospects will also be dictated by the potential US-India trade deal, which is seen as highly likely to be wrapped up shortly.

"But any imposition of large tariffs by the US may have a knee-jerk negative impact on the rupee which may take it to 86.80 levels again," said Sharma.

India's current forex reserves by June 20 were about $698 Billion. These are deemed as 'quite comfortable', with the Reserve Bank of India actively intervening to prevent any sharp depreciation to the rupee'.

What US' new 'Big Beautiful Bill' might mean

The new US budget bill - which authorises more than $1 trillion in additional spending alongside a dramatic hike in import tariffs, is already being described by investors as a potential turning point in the fight against inflation.

Economists note that even during wartime and pandemic stimulus, no modern US administration has simultaneously pursued this scale of deficit expansion and supply suppression.
The tariffs affect over 500 categories of imports, from clean tech to electronics to basic industrial components.

Nigel Green of deVere Group warns that the combined impact of these policies could make the legislation “the most inflationary economic act in over half a century.”
“This bill throws open the taps on spending while throttling the flow of global goods. It’s a high-stakes gamble with inflation—and one that the rest of the world will end up paying for.”