India defies global gloom: Domestic, health demands drive long-term growth

Dubai: As the global economy faces mounting pressure — from trade wars to slowing demand — India is quietly charting a different course.

While other markets brace for stagnation, India is leaning on a powerful trio: stable fundamentals, resilient consumer demand, and a health transformation unfolding at scale.

That’s the key takeaway from the latest Lalcap Report, which highlights how India’s growth narrative has begun to decouple from the broader gloom, offering a compelling case for long-term investment interest — particularly from investors eyeing diversified exposure.

The World Bank recently warned that the 2020s could mark the weakest decade for global economic performance since the first Apollo moon landing. Its revised growth forecasts project a sluggish 2.5% average over the first seven years of this decade.

India, however, remains an outlier. With inflation easing, the Reserve Bank of India projecting 6.5% GDP growth for fiscal 2026, and domestic stock indices touching 2025 highs, the country is demonstrating rare resilience. Even monsoon forecasts — critical for agriculture and rural consumption — have stayed favourable.

“India’s economic footing is holding steady,” says Deepak Lalwani, Founder and Director of UK-based Lalcap Ltd.. “That’s more than many global markets can say right now.”

But underneath the stability lies a quieter transformation — one rooted in public health and shifting demographics.

A recent national health survey found that more than 40% of Indian adults are now obese by BMI standards, and 80 million people are living with Type 2 diabetes. For a country with over a billion adults, these figures point to a public health emergency — and a market opportunity.

Enter global pharmaceutical giants. US-based Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have both launched GLP-1-based treatments in India in recent months — Mounjaro and Wegovy, respectively — drugs that help manage both obesity and diabetes via weekly injections.

Demand is already outpacing supply in several global markets. In India, with its rising middle class and increasing lifestyle-linked illness, the uptake could reshape the country’s healthcare industry.

“India is not just another market. It’s the market for future pharma growth,” notes Lalwani. “And pricing pressure is coming too.”

That’s because Wegovy’s key ingredient, semaglutide, will go off patent in India next year — a trigger for local generic players to enter the space with affordable versions. For pharma watchers, this could rewrite the playbook for how these drugs are priced and scaled across developing markets.

India’s long-term investment case is increasingly driven by more than interest rates or global cycles. Local consumption, healthcare demand, and demographic shifts are now powerful, durable themes.

For investors elsewhere in the world looking for growth stories that aren’t hostage to global volatility, India’s evolving health landscape — from public policy to private pharma — is a sector to watch closely.

Add to that an improving macro backdrop, and India continues to present low drama, high potential — a rare combination in today’s economic climate.