As Dubai's real estate market continues to capture global attention, questions emerge about its growth trajectory.
Will the growth continue? What opportunities – and risks - lie ahead? We draw upon extensive data from DXBInteract.com to examine the value, volume, and median price per square foot for residential apartments in Dubai from 2009-23.
Offplan vs. ready properties
- Sales values for offplan homes increased from Dh47 billion in 2009 to Dh83 billion in 2023, a 76 per cent increase or an average yearly gain of 5.8 per cent.
- Sales values of ready units escalated quite dramatically, from Dh4.4 billion to Dh42 billion, a whopping 854 per cent over 13 years. That’s 65 per cent on average annually. This reflects a realistic trend, as these properties are often resold multiple times.
The slower yearly growth in offplan sales can be attributed to a lack of new launches between 2010-12 and a softer market from 2015-20. However, a robust increase in off-plan projects has been observed since 2021.
Sales volume went from 35,800 in 2009 to 36,600 units so far in this year, surpassing the previous peak 13 years ago. Demand remains strong, influenced by market dynamics and regulatory frameworks that were not in place in 2009. The share of transactions is now spread across a greater number of developers and projects.
Ready properties saw sales volume of 17,300 in 2009 and 25,700 homes so far in 2023, indicating a 0.6 per cent average yearly increase. A steady uptick in sales volume indicates a mature market. As long as demand for ready properties exists, off-plan projects will continue to attract buyers.
Risks and opportunities
Supply surge: A rapid influx of offplan projects could intensify competition among developers, leading to longer payment plans or decreased prices.
Investor Expectations: Those who own under-construction properties anticipate high profits upon completion, hinging on original purchase prices and continuous market growth.
Market price discrepancy
There is an emerging gap between developer prices and resale market prices for offplan and ready properties. For offplan properties, the average price rose from Dh1,004 psf in 2012 to Dh1,825 this year, which is 7.4 per cent per year.
For ready properties, the price rise is from Dh858 psf in 2012 to Dh1,136 in 2023, at 2.9 per cent per year).
The spike in offplan prices can be attributed to the proliferation of luxury projects. Given the external conditions, an annual increase of 7.4 per cent for offplan and 2.9 per cent for ready seems reasonable.
Our data suggests that the ratio of secondary sales of offplan units dropped from 34 per cent in 2022 to 15 per cent in 2023, which shows:
- Many owners of properties under construction have resold during 2022 as they bought at lower prices and, hence, cashed out.
- With the supply of new offplan projects rising, the dominance of marketing channels by developers have caused a slowdown in the resale market for properties under construction.
- Investors shifted their attention to buying from developers rather than in the secondary market, which also contributed to the raise of primary market transactions.
While the Dubai real estate market shows signs of growth sustainability, potential risks stemming from oversupply and investor expectations must not be overlooked. The data suggests a predominantly healthy market, driven by end-user demand, but prudent decision-making will be key to navigating the future landscape.