Beyond tragic loss of lives, there were some steep losses elsewhere
Even before Presidents Trump and Putin sign any agreement to end the war in Ukraine, the winners and losers from the conflict—one that brought the world dangerously close to nuclear confrontation—were already becoming evident.
While war is often described as an arena of deception, this time, the deception did not take place on the battlefield, but in a far more significant arena: the world of global financial relations. Here, the deception showed up with the winners reaping considerable gains at the expense of the losers, who naively swallowed the bait.
Let official data speak for themselves. France, a key member of the EU and a vocal critic of the war while supporting Ukraine—whether through fiery rhetoric or moral backing—saw its imports of Russian gas soar 81% over the past two years, paying Russia a staggering $2.8 billion, according to the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
France and Belgium, which boast liquefied gas terminals, account for 85% of the Russian gas reaching Europe, compared to Germany, which has limited capacity and only began constructing its own liquefied gas terminals after the war.
Prior to this, Germany imported Russian gas cheaply through pipelines, which were cut off at the request of its allies.
As a result, Germany now finds itself paying twice as much to import the same Russian gas, incurring high costs, while the allies profit handsomely by acting as intermediaries—liquefying the gas and pumping it back to Germany. This shift has left Germany facing significant losses, severely impacting its economy and growth.
Experts are now questioning whether Germany has fallen victim to a massive financial deception by other EU members, one that has come at a heavy price.
Some EU members - such as Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria - chose to prioritise their own interests by continuing to import Russian gas through pipelines, despite significant pressure to halt the imports. The countries, less economically affluent than their counterparts, cannot afford the additional costs imposed by the shift in energy sources, unlike economically advanced nations such as Germany.
At the centre of the geopolitical chessboard is the US, the dominant player orchestrating much of the game. The previous American administration remarkably benefitted its key stakeholders by securing fees from US gas export companies, charging Europe three times the price of Russian gas following the decline in Russian exports.
The pricing surge placed a tremendous strain on European budgets, particularly Germany's, leading to the closure of hundreds of factories unable to absorb the skyrocketing gas costs. This was evident in last weekend’s German election results.
On the other hand, the US lost $350 billion at the national level, according to President Trump, money, weapons and materials that were sent to Ukraine. Currently, there is a fierce dispute and mutual accusations between the new American administration and the Ukrainian president.
Washington is demanding transparency regarding the sources of these funds, questioning their distribution, and insisting on their repayment by securing Ukraine's valuable and rare mineral deposits.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president has accused the previous administration of corruption, alleging that half of the funds were siphoned off through inflated logistical contracts and arms deals with large commissions.
At the same time, sources suggest that American companies lost $342 billion due to their exit from Russia as soon as the war started. Russian companies have successfully taken over these businesses, generating substantial profits. It is expected that most of these American companies will return to the Russian market in the second quarter of this year, effectively starting from scratch.
When factoring in the costs to companies alongside the aid provided, total American losses could reach approximately $700 billion, not including logistical losses related to transportation and communication or the losses incurred by global insurance companies.
Given the complexity of these losses, some estimates suggest that the total could approach $1 trillion. Meanwhile, the Russian economy is experiencing solid growth, with an expanding and more diversified trade and investment landscape. Russia is poised for a developmental leap, particularly as American sanctions are expected to be lifted in conjunction with the signing of a peace agreement.
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