This leaves them caught between two competing powers. They depend on the United States for security, but they also know that any confrontation with Iran can quickly spill into their airspace, territorial waters and economic systems.

The economic stakes could hardly be higher.

The Strait of Hormuz carries a large share of the world’s oil and gas exports, much of it from GCC producers. Oil prices had fallen from a mid-May peak of $104 a barrel to as low as $68 in early July while the ceasefire held. They are now under renewed pressure following the closure of the waterway.

The US military also said it disabled an empty tanker heading towards Kharg Island, a key hub for Iranian oil exports.

But the risks to Gulf economies extend far beyond energy. GCC diversification plans depend heavily on aviation, logistics, tourism and investor confidence. All of these sectors suffer when the strait is disrupted and regional security deteriorates.

Diplomacy continues, but space is narrowing

Despite the renewed fighting, Gulf diplomacy has not stopped.

Qatar, alongside Pakistan, is working to bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table. This reflects a consistent regional position: the Gulf’s interest lies in de-escalation, not in the outright victory of either side.

Yet the space for mediation is narrowing.

President Donald Trump has questioned the value of further talks, calling negotiations a “waste of time dealing with them”. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, meanwhile, said Tehran had no plans to resume negotiations.

Within the US administration, Vice-President JD Vance has continued to argue that the war cannot be won through military force alone. He has noted that it remains relatively easy for Iran to attack ships in the strait, regardless of how many Iranian military bases are destroyed.

The central dispute remains unresolved

At the heart of the conflict is a fundamental disagreement over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has insisted that Tehran must retain control of the strait, warning that any alternative arrangement would merely delay its reopening.

Washington, by contrast, treats freedom of navigation and control of the waterway as non-negotiable.

Between these positions sit the GCC countries, whose security, trade routes and airspace have become the arena in which the dispute is being tested.

The past five months have taught Gulf countries a difficult lesson. The ceasefire was never truly secure, and neither the United States nor Iran appeared to regard it as a durable end to the war. When the conflict resumed, both sides were ready to continue fighting.

For Gulf countries, the central takeaway is clear: an agreement negotiated by Washington and Tehran alone will not be enough to protect the region.

Real security will require a lasting settlement that addresses the future of the Strait of Hormuz and the wider regional order. Gulf states must also have a role in shaping that agreement, rather than simply living with the consequences of decisions made elsewhere.

Noor Almutawwa, Special to Gulf News

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