India’s caste census: The BJP’s change of heart or strategy?

If there is one predictable thing about the Narendra Modi-led Indian government, it is that you cannot predict what it may do next. The sudden announcement of a caste census at a time when war clouds have been building up after the Pahalgam terror attack, caught everyone off guard. Just months ahead of the Bihar assembly polls, the move is a complete U-turn by the BJP on the issue of a caste census.

The Congress, and Rahul Gandhi in particular, have been hammering home the need for a caste census for several election campaigns and are now taking credit for the Modi government’s announcement. Rahul Gandhi said the exercise was “our vision” and has demanded a timeline for the exercise to be completed.

While the BJP thinks it has pulled off a genius move, timing the census announcement just ahead of the Bihar polls, it will also be at pains to explain it’s own hypocrisy and about face on the issue. Until now, BJP leaders were going out of their way to tell us that the demand for a caste census was aimed at dividing society, while the Prime Minister had declared that he believed in only four castes - the poor, women, the youth and farmers. When the opposition INDIA bloc passed a resolution for caste census last year, Prime Minister Modi attacked them at an election rally, saying “the Congress is trying to create a divide among people in the name of caste, language and region in its attempt to regain power.”

The BJP’s shift is all the more significant given that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been historically uncomfortable with reservations and a caste census, which goes against the larger Hindu identity that they seek, one in which caste is drowned out by the bigger Hindutva umbrella. Last year, the RSS had even cautioned against using a caste census as a “political tool”. Even though the BJP under Modi has expanded it’s social base in the last decade with the support of OBCs or Other Backwards Castes, upper castes still remain their core supporters. They will not be happy about the possibility of having to share more resources with the underprivileged if a census forces a revision of the reservation pie.

Perhaps no one was more shocked by the announcement than the BJP’s vast social media army, which has attacked anyone and everyone who talked about the need for a caste census. They are still scratching their heads, figuring out how to spin this one, aside from calling it a “masterstroke”.

The real question is how much of an impact this will now have on the Bihar polls which are due to take place in October. The BJP is obviously hoping voters will forget its past position on a caste census and that by announcing it now, they have taken the lead on what could have been the most contentious issue in the polls. It has chosen to be politically pragmatic rather than take an ideological position, which is not new. In the past, they have done U-turns on other issues like freebies once they realised it was politically expedient to do so.

On the ground though, until the actual census happens (there has not been one since 2011) there will not be any fundamental change for the backward groups. The BJP hopes just the intention of doing a caste census will be enough. However, the announcement of a caste census has possibly taken the sting out of the Congress party’s key election plank, especially in a Hindi heartland state like Bihar where the politics of social justice has always been centrestage. Two Congress ruled states - Telangana and Karnataka - have done their own caste surveys. It is also widely believed that the issue of caste and reservations hurt the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, as the Congress drove home a message that a majority to the BJP would enable them to change the constitution of India and therefore do away with or reduce reservations to backward castes. Bihar is at the heart of this politics and therefore the BJP realised it needed to course correct quickly.

The opposition will have to rework its strategy for Bihar and focus on timelines and tangible outcomes after a caste census. That is the only thing that can put the BJP on the mat.