11 years of Modi: Why BJP is still calling the shots

The Indian government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just marked 11 years in power - three back-to-back terms that have put the BJP firmly in the political driver’s seat. A year ago, it actually did not look that way. The BJP fell well short of the majority mark of 272, settling at 240 and needed the help of allies like the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) to stay afloat. Many speculated that this was the beginning of the end of the Modi era, that Modi would have to compromise on his agenda to accommodate his coalition partners.

Fast forward to one year later. The BJP has never appeared stronger. The Lok Sabha elections may have been a setback, but in the subsequent months, the party has bounced back, winning the all important state elections in Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi. It has managed to keep the JDU and the TDP happy and ensure that the two allies support it on crucial legislation. Neither Nitish Kumar nor Chandrababu Naidu have been keen on rocking the boat.

That is not to say the BJP is not facing challenges. But a divided and dispirited opposition along with a mainstream media that is almost entirely controlled by the ruling party, makes the BJP appear more in control of the narrative.

The fact that the BJP has not been able to elect a new party president speaks volumes. Except no one is really talking about it. The incumbent chief JP Nadda is on his second extension. Differences within have lead to repeated postponements of the election, which would be a ‘selection’ in any case given the firm grip that Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have on the party. The BJP has also been facing trouble within its ranks in some state units like Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Of course, any political party as large as the BJP, that has been in power as long as it has, will face some headwinds. But the larger point is that despite these teething problems, the opposition has not been able to wrest the narrative and take control.

The Pahalgam terror attack saw the BJP use the nationalism card yet again to paper over security failures. In the beginning, the Congress played its cards well, and did not fall into the 2019 Balakot trap by questioning the strikes during Operation Sindoor. But that unravelled pretty quickly as Shashi Tharoor was picked to lead a multiparty delegation of MPs to the United States and other countries to make India’s case. The guns within the Congress were then firmly trained on Tharoor. It was a stupid move. For many, it was opposition MPs like Shashi Tharoor and Asaduddin Owaisi who appeared more “nationalistic” in presenting India’s arguments on terrorism to the world than even BJP MPs. This is a moment the Congress could have seized on politically. After all, if the BJP no longer holds the nationalism card, which has been its trump card, what other card can it play?

The opposition INDIA bloc barely exists anymore. They haven’t had any meeting after last year’s Lok Sabha polls and parties within the so called alliance continue to bicker with each other. There has been no cohesive approach to taking on the BJP.

More than anything, the BJP has shown that even when it is down, it will not be out. The Lok Sabha results were a shock to the party, which did badly even in strongholds like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. But they hit the ground running right way after the polls and went on to win Maharashtra’s state elections with a thumping win only a few months later. Today the Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi has raised many questions on that win and challenged the credibility of the Election Commission of India.

The BJP election machinery and PR machine never stops. That is why despite the embarrassment of the Pahalgam attack and Donald Trump’s repeated claims of ensuring a ceasefire, Modi was able to seize the narrative again through Operation Sindoor and the multiparty delegations of MPs sent around the world.

If there is one thing the last 11 years have taught us, it is that under this BJP government, there is little or no accountability for any failures or mistakes. With the media looking the other way, it makes it even easier for the BJP to brazen things out. That is where a united opposition would have made a difference. For now, the ball is very much in Modi’s court.