Paris: He has been described as the Unidentified Flying Candidate in the most unpredictable French presidential election for a very long time. But he is not, any more, a laughing stock. Two months before the first round of the election, Emmanuel Macron is now a very decisive contender in the race.
When he announced his candidacy last November he was dismissed — by the right and the left — as a lunatic. Predictions were that his candidacy would very soon collapse; or that it was an empty box filled with nothing but vague ideas and ideals.
Furthermore, he didn’t have the structural support of a traditional party, its geographic spread into local communities and its volunteers. He also did not have the money, without which, said his critics, you can’t win an election. He had nothing but his youth, good looks and his profile as an outsider. It wouldn’t last, they all said.
Three months later, Emmanuel Macron, 39, stands at 22.5 per cent in the polls for the first round, second behind the untouchable — for now — Marine Le Pen. His movement, En Marche! (note the E for Emmanuel and M for Macron; and which could be translated as “Forward!”), just reached the 200,000-supporter mark.
His candidacy has been further boosted by the alliance with the centrist François Bayrou. The leader of the Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem) party, who was credited with around 5 per cent in the polls, has decided, wisely, not to stand for the fourth time in a presidential election.
One of the reasons behind this decision, bar the fact that he had no chance of winning, was his recognition that Emmanuel Macron is now the best candidate, by far, to beat the Front National’s Marine Le Pen in the second round.
Macron’s decisive mantra, that the traditional divide between left and right is out of fashion, not relevant any more, reaches plenty of voters. And, if the choice on May 7 is between Le Pen and Macron, the latter will be an easy choice for both liberal conservatives and social democrats. It’s not so clear, were Francois Fillon the opponent against Le Pen, that he would deliver both groups.
The leader of Les Republicains is seen as much too conservative for a lot of socialists and his recent scandals, which do not seem to be dying down, make him even less attractive. Low turnout would then be the danger and the chance for Le Pen in the second round.
It is probably true that Macron has been incredibly lucky since the launch of his bid. The unprecedented decision by president Francois Hollande to not stand for a second term, due to his unpopularity, the rejection in the socialist primary of his former prime minister Manuel Valls, and the choice of Benoit Hamon, much more on the left of the Socialist party, have left a vacuum closer to the centre. And the surprise primary win, on the conservative side, of Francois Fillon against the more moderate Alain Juppe opened up space on the centre-right for Macron. This was widened still by scandals about Fillon’s wife, Penelope, who may or may not have worked as his parliamentary assistant, but who was duly paid.
But Macron has used his luck smartly. His critics keep repeating that centre mainstream policies never win elections. Macron strongly disagrees, even if he still sees himself as on the left, though not a socialist. (He was a member of the Socialist party between 2006 and 2010, but never renewed his membership.)
What is fascinating is the way he is conducting his campaign, using tools already tried successfully by such different figures as Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
He is heavily reliant on social media, asking again and again his supporters for their thoughts or their reactions to meetings. His communication is led by Laurence Haim, a former journalist who has covered American politics for the past 20 years, including the two Obama campaigns.
When he speaks and meets people, he is very engaging and straight-talking and uses simple language which some would qualify as “populist”, for what that over-used word is still worth. But his agenda, his ideas are resolutely mainstream. In a way, he reminds some of the 1997 version of Tony Blair — enthusiastic, seemingly fearless and without too much complexity. There might be less fervour for Macron, but France is not emerging from 18 years of conservatism.
He is not afraid to address criticism and has reacted to the rumours that he is gay and leading a double-life by cracking jokes about them. He is married to Brigitte, older than him by 24 years and who once taught him literature at school. You wonder if a male candidate with a much younger wife would have been on the receiving end of such rumours.
He created some noise two weeks ago when he said in Algiers that “France’s colonialism has been a crime against humanity”. The far-right and a wide range of mainstream conservatives were outraged, but others said that it was a necessary debate which needed to be addressed. He apologised for “hurting some sensibilities” but didn’t retract his words.
As for money, he has been accused of being the candidate of the bankers because he used to work for Rothschild. Last Monday in London, he addressed 3,500 potential French voters and told them: “I am always accused when I come to London that I am here to grab money from the City, from those nasty and horrible people.”
The assembly laughed — lots of them work in the City. But then he carried on: “At least at Rothschild I had a real job, I worked, I really did earn my salary.” A nice jab at Francois Fillon, accused of hiring his wife for duties she never carried out.
The fact is, because En Marche! is not a political party, it doesn’t receive public funding. So the movement is so far financed by individual donations, limited by law to a maximum of €7,500 (Dh30,000) per person. Macron has announced that he is in the process of taking out a personal bank loan to finance the rest of the campaign.
He has also been accused of making great speeches — attracting crowds of 10,000 and more at each meeting — with no programme. That is not the case any more. Over the past week, he has increasingly been putting forward more policy proposals.
Last Friday, he unveiled his budget programme, which involves saving some €60 billion over five years, with cuts in the civil service (but not in health care). Next week, he will present his manifesto. And he is the most pro-European of all the candidates, speaking in favour of reinforcing and reforming the EU, saying that “we are weaker without Europe”.
He landed a coup when Theresa May met him in Downing Street last week, but kept talking straight, saying that “Brexit means Brexit” and that the UK cannot expect a better deal outside the EU than in.
At the same time, he stressed the necessity of preserving a strong alliance between France and the UK in terms of security.
Macron is an anomaly in the French political landscape, and, to some extent, in the European one. He is the only real new candidate in the campaign. François Fillon and Benoît Hamon are both career politicians.
As for Marine Le Pen, on the far-right, and Jean-Luc Melenchon, on the far-left, they have both been around for years and already stood in presidential elections.
Political experts used to say that, when confronted with the unknown at the ballot box, the voter would usually be risk-averse and support the status quo. But the past months have shown that this trend is changing.
In Britain, as in the United States, voters have gone for the risk: choosing Brexit, for which the consequences were, and still are, unknown, or choosing a man without any electoral mandate or political experience in the US with a vote for Trump.
As for Macron, in two years as a minister for the economy under Hollande, he can be credited with the most ambitious labour market reform in decades.
Though he had to backtrack on some key issues, it firmly established him as a centrist and someone who embraces change even against formidable opposition. He is still the new kid in town, but he is not a joke any more. And in eight weeks’ time, we will have a better idea if populism of the centre ground can win.
