Mideast policy will be different

Will the Obama administration bring the changes in both tone and policy that so many people around the world yearn to see in Washington? With the Democrats in firmer control of Congress than they were before November's election. With an undeniable feeling throughout the country that something in Washington has to change. With the economy continuing to sputter. With a sense growing that history has presented President-elect Barack Obama with a once-in-a-generation moment in which big, sweeping things can be done. Yes, change is coming.

Less certain is that it will be the change any particular person or group wants, or that it will happen on their schedule. Policy is about making choices and choices usually mean that someone heads home unhappy.

In the public discussions surrounding the presidential transition foreign policy and national security have been notably absent. Many people in the United States are currently focused on the economy to the exclusion of pretty much everything else. At some point that will change, but policy-making is a long and complex process in the United States. Add to that Obama's well-known preference for thoughtful deliberation (in contrast to George W. Bush's tendency to go with his gut) and the result is likely to be a dramatic change in tone on at least some issues come January 20, but a much slower evolution in substance.

This may especially be the case where key regions, such as the Middle East, are concerned. The depth and complexity of the region's issues (not to mention their sheer number) cry out for a prudent approach. Obama's Middle East policies are likely to be very different from those of Bush, or even Bill Clinton, but expect this to become apparent over a period of months, not days.

Gordon Robison is a journalist and consultant based in Burlington, Vermont. He has lived in and reported on the Middle East for two decades, including assignments in Baghdad for both CNN and Fox News.