Victory in by-elections is key to Malaysian coalition chances

Kuala Terengganu: Malaysia's government, still reeling from a poor showing in the 2008 election, faces a key by-election test tomorrow of whether it can rebuild its multi-ethnic coalition.

While the poor rural seat of Kuala Terengganu in the northeast of this Asian country of 27 million is mostly Malay, the 11.6 per cent ethnic Chinese population is seen as the swing vote that will decide the vote, a test for Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak who will take over the premiership in April.

A strong showing for the United Malays National Organisation, the dominant force in the National Front that has ruled Malaysia for 51 years, would boost its chances of remaking its battered coalition and increase Razak's chance to reform the economy.

"Many Kuala Terengganu Chinese voters I've met say the government has not learnt the lessons of the last general election and that they need to send them a stronger message," said political commentator and former opposition MP James Wong.

Nationally, ethnic Chinese and Indians account for 34 per cent of the population and they deserted the National Front in droves in 2008, hollowing out the National Front which portrays itself as a multi-ethnic political force.

A recent survey of Kuala Terengganu residents by a respected independent polling organisation, the Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research, found that 75 per cent of the Chinese respondents said voting for the opposition would send a signal to the government to treat non-Malays more fairly.

But tomorrow's vote has been complicated by the fact that the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), part of Anwar Ebrahim's three-party coalition, has pushed for Islamic laws, scaring Chinese who are not Muslims.