Thiruvananthapuram: If the general perception that the 16th Lok Sabha election is a contest primarily between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress is true, then Karnataka ought to be their key battleground.
The state has been a bastion for the Congress for several decades after Independence, and it was also the first state where the BJP came to power in the South. And in recent years, both parties have gone through turbulence, making Karnataka a state to watch for at the hustings this time.
To make matters even more interesting, there are half a dozen former chief ministers contesting, there are billionaires, there are tainted candidates, and there is Congress party’s new poster boy and former chief of the Unique Identification Authority of India, Nandan Nilekani.
Sure enough, as the state counts down the final days to the polling, surveys show that the Congress and BJP are neck-and-neck in the poll race, with both expected to pick up 13 seats each of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Should that be so, it would be a setback for the BJP, which had a handsome 19 seats in 2009, when Congress had to be content with only six seats and the Janata Dal Secular had three seats.
A telling sidelight is that both the BJP and the Congress are facing corruption issues, with the mining scam within the state hurting the BJP and the multiple scams including the Coalgate and the 2G spectrum scam affecting Congress’ prospects.
At another level, the election is a test of confidence for Karnataka’s Congress chief minister Siddaramaiah. The BJP and JD(S) say the election will be a referendum against the Siddaramaiah government and there is speculation that the Congress high command expects nothing short of 15 MPs from Karnataka. That is a tough ask for the chief minister, who is known as a champion of the backward classes, because he is faced with intra-party bickering as well as the anti-incumbency factor.
Siddaramaiah is seen to have the blessing of Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, but his cabinet colleagues don’t seem to have the same affection for him. One oft-quoted complaint is that the CM hardly confers with his cabinet team on important decisions. And the CM’s decision on multiple occasions to roll back government decisions has dented his image as a decisive leader. The CM, however, will hope to carry the day on his two strengths: As a leader of the oppressed, and his clean image.
For the BJP, after numerous intra-party problems and the break-up in the party when former chief minister B.S. Yedyurappa formed the Karnataka Janata Party, Yedyurappa’s home-coming earlier this year appears to be a morale booster ahead of the polls. Yeddyurappa is contesting from the Shimoga constituency.
While the BJP and the Congress are expected to pick up 13 seats apiece, leaving two to the JD(S), there is another factor to deal with this time, namely the Aam Admi Party. AAP has fielded candidates in 13 constituencies. Observers do not give the party the likelihood of picking up a seat, but the least that can be said is that on the showing of AAP and JD(S) will hinge how the BJP and Congress share the bigger pie.
