New Delhi:
As a potential political partner, the chief minister of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu has some drawbacks.
Known by the cosy nickname “Amma,” or “Mother,” Jayalalitha Jayaram has a reputation as mercurial, ruthless and domineering. During her first years in power, her ministers sometimes prostrated themselves on the floor when they reported to her. A former accountant once accused her of beating him black and blue with a high-heeled shoe, though she denied it, saying she was “too cultured to indulge in such an uncivilised act.”
She can be fickle. Once, feeling neglected in her year-old pact with the governing party at the time, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) she brought the national government crashing down by abruptly withdrawing her support. She signalled this devastating act by inviting Sonia Gandhi, leader of the Indian National Congress Party, for a cup of tea.
Amid India’s national elections, most attention is trained on the front-runner, Narendra Modi of the BJP. Modi has cast himself as a technocratic reformer brimming with fresh ideas, headed to New Delhi to shake up the political status quo.
But his path to the prime minister’s office will depend on a familiar group of secondary politicians: regional satraps whose leverage derives from their ability to form or break a coalition government. Unless the BJP wins the 272 seats necessary to govern alone, Modi will probably need the support of at least one of the “three ladies” — a formidable group of horse-traders that includes Jayalalitha; Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal; and Mayawati, a former chief minister of Uttar Pradesh.
Each can offer Modi something he needs: a mandate strong enough to endorse sweeping change. Each has flirted with the idea of forming a “third front” that excluded the BJP. And each, if left unsatisfied, has the ability to extract her pound of flesh.
Give and take
“In the case of Jayalalitha, there is a give and take,” said A.S. Panneerselvan, a journalist based in Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu. “That is, she will be very, very clear on what she wants to take.”
During the 10 days after an Indian election, a flurry of secret negotiating takes place as regional heavyweights barter parliamentary seats in exchange for a package of concessions — benefits for their state or themselves, or senior positions for their allies. Under any circumstances, it is a white-knuckled game replete with double-dealing and deceit.
Modi’s party has had particular difficulty in building coalitions. Its first taste of national power in 1996 ended after just 13 days when it failed to attract enough allies. Some in the BJP fear a similar fate this time around because major regional players have been hesitant to partner with Modi. He is loathed by many Muslims, who view him as complicit in bloody religious riots in his state in 2002, though no court has found him responsible. Each of the “three ladies” needs Muslim votes to some extent.
The women will also be cautious about making deals with Modi because of his reputation as an authoritarian leader, said N. Ram, the publisher of The Hindu, a daily newspaper in Chennai.
“They will be wary; they will try to keep him anxious,” Ram said. “They don’t want to be taken for granted.”
For now, political prognosticators are left to search for hints that an alliance is in the works.
Sometimes the best clues are things that do not happen. At a rally this month, Jayalalitha delivered a speech that consisted largely of attacks on other politicians, among them Sonia Gandhi.
But, notably, she said not a word about Modi, telling the crowd, “There will be a new coalition, and I will have a role in that.”
Indeed, Jayalalitha and Modi — solitary autocrats from different corners of the country — have formed a tentative friendship, attending each other’s swearing-in ceremonies and exchanging birthday greetings. Cho Ramaswamy, a playwright and magazine publisher who has advised Jayalalitha in the past, said the pair was drawn together by a shared sense of grievance toward the ruling class.
“Both understand the difficulties of each other,” Cho said. “Both are against Congress.”
But neither has a history of forming lasting alliances. In his 12-year rule of Gujarat, Modi has split bitterly with former aides and mentors.
Now, though, there is little doubt that he needs powerful partners who are, like him, outsiders to New Delhi’s traditional power structures, said Milan Vaishnav, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based research centre.
“This is where we don’t really know, because he’s never had to have any friends, he’s never had to build a coalition,” Vaishnav said.
“In Gujarat, he’s been able to dominate and saturate the political space so entirely that he’s been able to lead from the top. You can’t do that so well at the centre.”
Jayalalitha’s clout derives from her worshipful following in Tamil Nadu, something that was on full display at her rally.
Her face stared down from posters the height of five-storey buildings, from shimmering porticoes made of bamboo fronds, from giant balloons that bobbed in the sky.
Some 1,000 banana trees, heavy with fruit, had been cut and lined up to create an alley for her motorcade, interspersed with columns fashioned out of fruits. The rally site was mobbed with women. The crowd, estimated at 50,000, surged forward with joy on their faces when she appeared on stage.
Cho, who has known Jayalalitha for many years, said she had mellowed greatly.
He also said she had learnt the lesson of her withdrawal from the BJP coalition in 1999, noting that after that impulsive decision, she was unable to form an alliance with a ruling coalition in Delhi for a decade.
“She thinks before making decisions. So I don’t think there would be a repetition of what happened then.”
Predictions
Cho said a coalition was likely, and predicted that if Modi performed strongly, securing 230 or 240 seats, it would prove to be a stable alliance.
“If it will be close,” Ram said, “you will see a lot of unsavory things happening in the first year.”
Shankar said that if Modi wins more than 200 seats, “all of these people will find some excuse” to enter into an alliance.
“Everything is possible, because power is the one cementing factor,” she said. “Arithmetic is what matters. Not chemistry. ”
— New York Times News Service
