New Delhi: Brigadier Arun Sahgal (retired) has the unique distinction of being a soldier of the Indian Army, in a career spanning over 36 years. Having held a number of important command, staff and instructional appointments, his academic qualifications are envied by many.
A Master of Science in Defence Studies and a Ph.D in Defence and Strategic Studies, has enabled him to get international exposure and also attend numerous international conferences and meetings.
As Director of the Office of Net Assessment, Integrated Defence Staff, the 1971 India-Pakistan War veteran undertook long-term strategic assessments, assisting in national security planning and the development of India's future military capabilities. He is working on geo-political and geo-strategic dimensions of Asian security with a focus on China.
The senior army officer spoke to Gulf News in an exclusive interview.
Gulf News: With India and China being viewed as the most powerful countries in the years to come, do you see the advent of a bipolar world? Or will it be the US versus the rest?
Brigadier Arun Sahgal: What we are seeing is a multi-polar world, but perhaps in a few years a bipolar system will emerge. This bi-polarity will be reflected by the US and China as two major economic and military powers, even though there could be major differentials between their capabilities. The interesting dynamics that are at play as far as the US is concerned is that it is engaging China at two levels. On one level, it needs economic partnership with Beijing and on the other, it is not comfortable in bequeathing the strategic space and the leadership role in Asia to China. This means building up strategic relationships in Asia and India is a part of that strategy. And this strategy is not to contain China but to restrain the country's influence.
Even though India believes that it has a degree of autonomy in its policy-making, the fact is that given the degree of challenge that the Chinese pose against India in terms of forays in South Asia — projections in the Indian Ocean region and the economic conflicts of interests — there is a natural tendency for us to align our interest with the US.
Going by the position that's emerging in Asia, we can say that China is on one side and the US and India on the other.
Is it in India's interest to look up to China for cooperation in the food sector regarding the grain storage facilities?
I totally endorse that we should have good trade and investment and good technological proportion with China. In fact, if we can have joint production agreements even in the security sector, we should go for it. The question is how do we deal with China? Since it's a big country and our neighbour, there is no point in fighting with it. India gains by befriending China. But that does not mean we become a proxy state to China. It's in the interest of both countries to collaborate in creating a strategic space in Asia with a greater degree of stability.
The Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China is not in control. What then is under control?
Apart from the central sector, there is no exchange of maps. So, there is an Indian perception of LAC and there is the Chinese perception of LAC. And no transgressions take place. Though sometimes there are intrusions when the Chinese enter Indian territory, halt for a few days and then vacate the place. These are related to what we call their ‘claims' to the territory, which sometimes is the show of force and sometimes plain intimidation. But since the last 23 years, peace and tranquility prevails on the border.
How do you view the China-Pakistan nuclear deal vis-à-vis Beijing's relations with India?
India and China's relations are akin to a curved road. And it has not come to a point where the Chinese would be sensitive to India's interests. Regarding bilateral relations, there is no doubt that China will use Pakistan as leverage against India. In that context, the nuclear deal with Pakistan is not so much about energy for Pakistan, but more of an ego tussle and a message to the US that if you have a strategic relationship with India, we will use Pakistan as a hedge against that relationship.
Considering Islamabad's dubious record of nuclear proliferation, should this be alarming for India?
That is only a part of the problem. The basic issue with us and the world community is that this deal is beyond taking the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) and IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards into consideration by China. When India and the US signed the 123 deal, India went through the entire gambit of dealing with the safeguards procedures. But these procedures have been given a go-by by China to a country which is known for its poor proliferation policies. By doing this, China is enhancing Pakistan's nuclear weapons capabilities. This is highly objectionable. This will lead to an armed race.
Also, what is not known to many is that Pakistan is on the threshold of producing a 3,500km range missile which is being developed with Chinese and North Korean capabilities. That's why the issue is dangerous. The world also needs to take note of the height of instability within Pakistan.
Is the concern about the existence of terrorist networks in Pakistan seeking access to nuclear weapons technology, the only reason that the US is opposed to the China-Pakistan nuclear deal?
It has taken a long time for the US to determine where they stand with the deal. Now they have come to the conclusion that it will be bad for them to oppose the deal. But one cannot say how serious they are as they are concerned about the war in Afghanistan and are desperate to get the Pakistan army involved.
Much was made of the reference to Indo-Pakistan ties in a US-China statement in November last. Do you think India's fears were unfounded as the US cozied to China?
To a degree, yes, there was an unnecessary hype in the Indian media and also in certain strategic circles. There is a natural coordination of economic interests given the kind of global recession we are passing through, including the US and China.
What's your opinion on Communist leaders from Pakistan insisting that China had a role to play in the Indo-Pakistan issue saying — ‘when neighbours fight, a third neighbour can mediate?'
We have very categorically told Pakistan that we have to resolve the issue bilaterally. But can China exercise its influence on Pakistan? It can only be a facilitator. China should rather impress upon Pakistan that the mood of confrontation they have should be given up and think towards development.
Separatists in Kashmir have been welcoming China's interest in Kashmir. Are there apprehensions because of this?
It's posturing — that's all I can say. The separatists are getting sidelined politically. So they are only trying to revamp their importance.
Facts: A distinguished career path
• Brigadier Arun Sahgal was born on July 17, 1947 in Simla, Himachal Pradesh.
• Early education at Senior Model School, Chandigarh and Yadavindra Public School, Patiala, both in Punjab.
• Passed out from the National Defence Academy, Khadakwasla, Pune in 1967.
• Joined the Indian Army, Armoured Corps, 2nd Lancers Gardener's Horse Regiment.
• Defence Services Staff College, Wellington, Tamil Nadu.
• Joined the Senior Command Force.
• Worked as instructor at the Defence Services Staff College.
• Fought in the 1971 Indo-Pakistan War.
• Set up the Office of Net Assessment, Integrated Defence Staff (Ministry of Defence), which takes into account long-term strategic view on national security issues.
• Independent consultant with the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.
• Involved with National Security Council Secretariat and runs war games at the National Defence College.
