Guwahati: Amid talk of the route of the India National Congress (INC) in the general elections, Assam is where the leaders will find some solace.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the INC emerged as the single largest party, winning seven seats, while its ally, the Bodoland Peoples’ Party, retained Kokrajhar. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finished second with four seats while the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) won one seat each.
An aggregate of the opinion polls published till date suggest that INC may increase its tally to ten seats in the state, where its opponent BJP’s tally may decrease by one seat to three.
Going by the findings of the poll surveys, INC is likely to increase its vote share from 35 per cent in the 2009 elections to 47 per cent. The BJP is also expected to increase its share from 16 per cent in 2009 to 19 now while AGP’s vote share is likely to see a big drop from 15 to 9 per cent.
The AIUDF, though a key player in minority-dominated areas, is also expected to witness slight erosion in its support base. The party’s vote share is also likely to go down to 10 per cent of votes from 16 per cent in the last elections.
“We will surely win at least ten seats,” said Tarun Gagoi, the three time chief minister of the state told Gulf News. “Congress party has always delivered with an inclusive mandate and we will surely win,” he added.
Congress party chairperson Sonia Gandhi who was campaigning at Lakhimpur town north-east of Guwahati on Sunday said the opposition party “talks big” and believes in the “politics of hate”.
Speaking to her supporters at a large rally, Gandhi said, “The opposition, particularly the BJP, are going round the country indulging in big talk but what did their government do when they were in power at the centre? There is a big difference between talking and working.”
“We have fulfilled almost all promises made in the 2009 manifesto. We will do the same with the 2014 manifesto and we need your support for this,” she added.
However, analysts believe that the hopes of the Congress lie in the fact that the opposition is fractured, weak and devoid of leadership.
“AGP and AUIDF could have been a major spoiler had they been able to hold on to their vote base, which mostly eroded due to infighting. AGP chief Prafulla Kumar Mahanta is fast losing his grip over the party and many more leaders and their followers were waiting in the wings to leave the party at an opportune moment,” Kushal Boro, a professor of political science, said.
Congress party insiders agree and do not rule out the possibility of a self goal by the Congress as many of its leaders are unhappy with Gogoi’s style of functioning. “Infighting and internal squabble has badly plagued the state unit and a section of its ministers and legislators are extremely disappointed with the style of functioning,” a party insider said.
A section of the Congress is also opposed to Gogoi’s promotion of family members. His son, Gaurav Gogoi, was nominated from Kaliabor constituency, replacing his brother and sitting MP Dip Gogoi.
“The youth brigade of the party is unhappy with this decision, as it’s dynasty politics. The local party worker should have been given a chance,” the party insider said.
BOX
Assam
Capital: Dispur
Largest city: Guwahati
Area: 78,550 sq km
Parliamentary constituencies: 14
The main political parties of the state are Indian National Congress (INC), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)
Key political personalities:
Tarun Gogoi chief minister
Atul Boro president of AGP
