Washingto: Escalating anti-government demonstrations in Syria have put the Obama administration in a quandary as it tries to protect a range of wider US interests while supporting what it has called the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people.
Since the demonstrations began five weeks ago, heading toward what organisers say will be a decisive showdown with the government of President Bashar Al Assad, the administration has denounced official crackdowns but resisted concrete steps to pressure Damascus.
In focus: Unrest in the Middle East
US officials say they have little leverage over Syria, which is barred from American aid and most bilateral trade under its designation by the State Department as a terrorist-sponsoring nation and under other laws.
Hesitation
"We already have sanctions," a senior administration official said. "We could pursue whether there are additional ways to tighten pressure, but I don't want to suggest there is anything imminent." Some of the administration's hesitation is doubtless due to a palpable sense of weariness among policy-makers buffeted by months of political crises across the Middle East.
But there are more tangible reasons where Syria is concerned, including a reluctance to add further uncertainty to the tenuous Israeli-Palestinian peace process; an unwillingness, shared by Turkey and others allies in the neighbourhood, to readily trade a known quantity in Al Assad for an unknown future, and a latent belief among some that the Syrian leader can be persuaded to adopt real reforms.
Diplomatic thaw
The administration has reached out to Al Assad over the past two years and allowed the shipment of some dual-use technology, most significantly lifting restrictions on US-made spare parts for the Syrian airline.
As part of a diplomatic thaw, the administration last year sent the first US ambassador to Damascus since 2005, when high-level diplomatic representation was withdrawn after Syria was accused of the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
Unlike its rejection of government repression in countries such as Egypt, and far from its direct intervention in Libya, the Obama administration has resisted unequivocally blaming Western-educated Al Assad, who took power 10 years ago after his father's three-decade rule ended.
Significant impact
Tom Malinowski, Washington director of Human Rights Watch, said "it was probably fair to say that the US on its own can't do that much more on the sanctions front." But, he said, "it could have significant impact working with the European Union," Syria's largest trading partner and a significant importer of its oil.
Some analysts accused President Barack Obama of failing to see how Al Assad's departure would strengthen US policy in the region, including in dealing with Iran. Syria is Iran's only Arab ally and has long been a transhipment point for Iranian weapons bound for Hezbollah, the Shiite movement in Lebanon that Al Assad views as leverage with Israel.
Iran also uses Syrian ports as its outlet to the Mediterranean Sea. Al Assad's ouster could deprive Iran of those benefits, amounting to "a great gain for the United States and a great loss for Iran," said Elliott Abrams, the National Security Council's Middle East director during the George W. Bush administration. Beyond strategic considerations, Abrams said, Al Assad's "vicious and despicable" human rights record should be enough to prompt Obama to take a much harder line.
What next?
A new democratic government in Syria would probably urge Obama to push Israel to return the Golan Heights, taken in the 1967 Six-Day War, to bring it legitimacy. Israel has long preferred to set the timing and terms of such talks. Turkey fears that Syria's Kurds may seek to break away if Al Assad is toppled, reanimating Turkey's Kurdish separatist movement.
Lebanon's large Christian minority worries about the rise of a conservative Islamist government on its eastern border.
Although Saudi Arabia has had problems with Al Assad, and with Syria's alliance with Iran, the kingdom is concerned that Al Assad's fall could stir its own quiet, democratic movement to life.
"So what does America do? Antagonise all of its allies in the region to push this transition?" said Joshua Landis, director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
"We're on this democracy roll in the region, and many believe it's a one-stop shop. But, of course, it's not, and it's very difficult to explain that change in Syria is different."
