Region | Palestinian Territories
US offers deal in search for allies against Iran
But GCC states, becoming ever more tolerant of Tehran, will most likely continue relations
- By Carolynne Wheeler, The Telegraph Group Limited, London 2008
- Published: 23:29 January 12, 2008
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Occupied Jerusalem: US President George W Bush is to promise $20 billion (Dh73.4 billion) in advanced weaponry to Saudi Arabia as he travels through the Gulf states to garner support for further sanctions against Iran.
Yet even that gesture will not be enough to convince moderate Arab states to shun Iran, in a sign of its growing status as a Muslim world superpower.
The weapons deal, which is to include precision-guided missiles, first surfaced last autumn but was postponed over opposition in the US Congress. Now the Bush administration is to notify Congress on Monday of its intent to conclude the deal.
Sympathies
However, Arab diplomats warn that even the most loyal US allies face rising Islamist sympathies in their own countries and an effort by Tehran to boost diplomatic and trade links with its near neighbours.
The Gulf states' mostly pro-Western rulers recognise the danger that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose, but are reluctant to risk infuriating its fundamentalist regime, or be seen siding with Israel in the dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme.
"We know Iran is a threat," said one Arab diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. "It is by no means a friendly country to the Arab world. But President Bush has to give us something to be in this camp of so-called moderation."
Riad Qahwaji, director of the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said Bush "will have to sell himself as the real superpower, with a real vision," in order to regain influence lost over the last few years. "Nobody in the region here is happy about what Iran is doing," he said. "But at the same time nobody is willing to put his neck out for the Americans."
The Gulf states, which face Iran across the stretch of water through which much of the world's oil is shipped, are ruled by Sunni governments, but Iran's Shiite regime is widely seen as the guardian of the millions of Shiites who live in Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon.
Now Tehran is enjoying a thawing in relations in the region as the Sunni-ruled states adjust to life in the shadow of an increasingly powerful Iran.
Invitations
There is also growing tolerance of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was last month formally invited by Saudi Arabia - a key US ally - to attend the Haj, the annual pilgrimage. The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud Al Faisal, said last week that relations with Iran would continue regardless of US demands.
"We have relations with Iran and we talk with them, and if we felt any danger we have links... that allow us to talk about it," he said. "So we welcome any issue the president raises, and we will discuss them from our point of view."
For the first time, Iran was last month invited to join a meeting of the Gulf Co-operation Council, which is considering a proposal from Ahmadinejad for a free-trade agreement, an effort to counteract US influence. An Arab diplomat said: "These were very initial steps and they have to do with every country's estimation of the balance of power in the region."
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