Arab diplomacy stands to lose

Dubai: Lebanon and the Palestinians stand to lose the most from the escalating row between Arab heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Syria.

Any potential deal to break the current political deadlock in Lebanon and Palestine has to be endorsed by Riyadh and Damascus, analysts say.

"How can they agree on a deal that needs compromise whilst they don't trust each other or even don't talk to each other?" said a well- known Syrian analyst, who until recently had been very close to the ruling circle in his country. "We are in for a long and ugly crisis in both Lebanon and the West Bank and Gaza," he told Gulf News on Saturday.

On Thursday, two-year-old simmering tensions between Saudi Arabia and Syria exploded in the media with an unusually scathing statement issued by a Saudi spokesman accusing Syria of "spreading" chaos and instability in the region.

It was in response to criticism from Syrian Vice-President Farouk Al Shara'a earlier last week in which he implied that Saudi Arabian role was "paralysed" by the United States.

He also said Riyadh was unable to force the Palestinians to honour the Makkah pact, which was brokered by the kingdom because its influence in the region was waning.

The Saudi statement accused Al Shara'a of manufacturing "lies and fallacies."

It said: "The government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has followed with great surprise the distasteful statements recently made by Mr Al Shara'a, which included numerous lies and fallacies aimed at harming us. The problem is not in the stances of the kingdom but rather in [Syrian] positions, which have disregarded the unity of Arab ranks and worked for spreading chaos and disorder in the region.

"Talk about the paralysis of the kingdom's Arab and Islamic role does not come from a rational or sensible person, as this role is well known to everyone ... Perhaps Mr Shara'a had a slip of the tongue and meant by paralysis the policy he speaks for."

Following the statement, a Syrian official said his country would not respond and considers the issue "closed." But the Syrian analyst says Damascus knows it is now "virtually impossible" to patch things with Riyadh without outside mediation.

A number of Arab diplomats, contacted by Gulf News, denied any knowledge of an Arab intervention. "It is too soon to say," one diplomat said.

The traditionally strong ties between the two Arab countries have soured since the February 2005 assassination of Lebanese former prime minister Rafik Al Hariri, who also held Saudi citizenship.

A UN probe committee has implicated Syrian and Lebanese security officials in the killing, a charge Damascus has repeatedly denied. At the time of the assassination, Lebanon was under Syrian military and intelligence dominance.

The relations went downhill during last summer's Israeli war on Lebanon. Syria accused Arab moderates, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan of providing political cover to the Israeli war.

In a post-war speech, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad described the leaders of those countries as "half men" for failing to support its ally, Hezbollah, during the conflict.

Riyadh meanwhile accuses Damascus of meddling in Lebanon to undermine the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora - a coalition of Saudi allies and anti-Syrian parties.

The kingdom also suspects that Syria and its close Muslim ally, Iran were behind the Palestinian movement Hamas' takeover of Gaza in June and the kicking out of President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah movement.

Syria's ties with Iran is another point of contention. Riyadh is concerned about the growing influence of Iran, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon, two countries with Shiite majority.

Syria has strong allies in the Lebanon opposition, particularly Hezbollah and Amal, the movement led by Speaker Nabih Berri. Riyadh's allies meanwhile control the Lebanese government.

"Saudi Arabia and Syria remain the most influential states in the internal Lebanese politics," Jihad Al Zain, Lebanese daily An Nahar's opinion editor wrote on Saturday. "Therefore, the Lebanese stand to lose the most from the tension between Riyadh and Damascus. Lebanon's stability is in grave danger if the crisis [between the two countries] escalates," he added.

In the Palestinian territories, a deal between Hamas and Abbas is a must for holding early elections and for resumption of peace talks with Israel. Hamas leaders live in Syria while Abbas is backed by the US and Riyadh. "The standoff therefore will continue," said the Syrian analyst.

The Saudis are not expected to repeat the Makkah pact venture, after all nobody honoured it. Syria meanwhile doesn't seem interested in making the job easy for Abbas and his Saudi backers.

Riyadh is concerned about the growing influence of Iran, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon, two countries with Shiite majority.