Polls unlikely to change the political face in Lebanon

Dubai: Lebanon will head to the polls on June 7 to elect a new parliament expected to resemble the outgoing one, albeit with a few and minor differences.

The political mosaic in the Legislative Council looks as if it will not be drastically different.

Analysts say that the outcome of the elections may not dramatically change Lebanon's position on the regional political arena, as some quarters have tried to portray.

As in all other elections, the atmosphere ahead of the polling is full of "fierce competition," Lebanese columnist Nichola Naseef said.

"There is a strong struggle to form the electoral lists, immense enthusiasm, and massive public groupings [split among the candidates]. But this should not be the criteria to say that this election is crucial, or it will change the face of Lebanon in case one group wins and another lose. Nothing will change in Lebanon," Naseef said.

Others are concerned that the poll results will shake up the multi-ethnic and multi-religious-sector country, and it will constitute a turning point for Lebanon's political alienation.

Currently, the 'March 14 alliance' - a grouping of different Muslim and Christian parties who are for the West and against Syria - has a majority of the 128-member parliament.

As a result, it has the constitutional right to name the prime minister. Prominent figures in this alliance are Sa'ad Al Hariri, former president Ameen Al Gemayel and Druze leader Walid Jumblat.

In the opposition camp, Hezbollah is considered the leading party in the 'March 8 alliance. This alliance also includes Christian parties who are for Syria and against the West. However, they are the minority in parliament.

While many Lebanese believe it is too early to predict the winners and losers, some believe the March 8 alliance's weight will tip the scales this time for many reasons.

These include the recent release of four Lebanese generals over insufficient evidence in the case of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination. They spent nearly four years in prison.

However, the difference is not expected to be big.

Analysts believe the difference will not exceed ten seats from the status quo. Currently, Hezbollah and its allies have 58 seats in the parliament. These are divided equally between Muslims and Christians.

Analysts fear that an electoral victory by Hezbollah, which is blacklisted by the United States and some European countries, may push Lebanon further towards both Syria and Iran and distance it further from the West and its allies. They believe this threatens the much-needed political and economic support.

For example, the United States has committed over $1 billion (Dh3.67 billion) to Lebanon since 2006. This includes $410 million availed to the country's security forces. However, other political analysts describe such fears as exaggerated. "The changes [in the next parliament] are going to be minor and not essential," Lebanese columnist Hosani Eitani said.

"The next parliament will also have the two blocs [the March 8 and March 14 alliances] and regardless of the side that is going to manage to form the majority bloc, it can't delete the presence of the other."

He added that the administration to be formed would also be a national unity government, regardless of who ended up being the majority and minority partners.

Politically, Lebanon has witnessed many alliances among rival factions in the past few decades.

In the country's political history, it is not unusual to make friends of yesterday's enemies and vice-versa.

"The election in Lebanon has always been an internal affair," Naseef said. "It will be another day for the Lebanese on June 8 and the debate will shift from elections to efforts to form the government."

Do you foresee a victory for March 14 or March 8? What are your hopes for the future of Lebanon? Tell us below.

Nationalist should win the election. Those are taking dictation from West should not win. It will be big loss of country.
Rose
Muscat,Oman
Posted: June 01, 2009, 16:17

Neither of them deserve to win!Both sides think they are helping Lebanon to the better but they don't realise the effect it has on the Lebanese people. The people should be one without having sides to choose from, it makes me sad that the Lebanese are still choosing sides and fighting over it.
Sarah
Dubai,UAE
Posted: June 01, 2009, 15:13

8 March will win the election, and change the direction of the country.But i would like to correct that we are not a follower to syria and Iran, we are lebanese who knows what is better for the country.
Dany
Dubai,UAE
Posted: June 01, 2009, 13:24